Vascular Biogenics Ltd (VBLT)

[staccani]

Why VBL111 OS in platinum resistant ovarian cancer is better than Avastin's Aurelia.

If we forget about the preliminary median OS of 810 days, it appears from the recent company presentation that the updated median OS in ph2 was 15.7M.
This compares to 16.6M of BEV plus chemio in Aurelia, so quite similar results but VBL trial patients were much sicker and advanced (hence probably the FDA agreement to go directly to a ph3) than Aurelia patients


First of all ECOG performance status in Aurelia was better than in VBL trial (the majority in Aurelia was ECOG 0 whereas in VBL111 ph2 was ECOG 1 ) but more importantly the stage was 57% IIIC and 29% stage IV in VBL trial, whereas 55% IIIC and 0% stage IV in Aurelia

Moreover in the VBL trial 48% was platinum refractory, vs 28% in the Aurelia trial (less than 3 months from platinum), finally 53% in VBL trial had prior anti VEGF therapy whereas only 7-8% in Aurelia trial.

My conclusion is that step by step as VBL 111 progresses with its clinical trials (also considering it will improve Avastin in GBM) will completely replace Avastin in its $7B peak global sales and maybe even increase them.

http://ascopubs.org/doi/full/10.1200/jco.2013.51.4489

http://ir.vblrx.com/static-files/f9e8a890-f2da-409d-b180-3302bc886f32