Is It Really Spring or a Disguised Fall?
The temp reads +200, Fall would register only a 0, so why do I think Fall might be underlying Spring.
The answer doesn't lie in suspected growth, which is strong along all time periods, but rather price inflation...the stuff the Fed wishes would start rising but remains stable at a low level.
A couple of different ways I view price inflation: one is pointing to higher prices across all time periods and that is TIP:IEF, the other SLV:GLD is doing exactly the opposite.
One of these will give, and then confirm if we are really in Spring or a stealth Fall.
