Market Direction and Stock Trends

[DiscoverGold]

:::: Dow Jones Industrials Index Cash Analysis ::::
By: Marty Armstrong | September 30, 2017

Analysis for the Week of October 2, 2017

As of the close of Fri. Sep. 29, 2017: At this time, the market remains in a full blown bullish position. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 2240565 and 2240511. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 2233298 and 2235849. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.

We should see a trend change come this month in Dow Jones Industrials so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 2217911 during August. We have now to exceed that level during September implying a continued advance was warranted. Support technically lies now at 2160034 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 2055345 becomes possible.

Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2240509 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's closing of 1976260. So far, we have been trading up for the past 4 days since the reaction low made on Mon. Sep. 25, 2017.

The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 2236935

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 18th at 2241951, which was up 22 weeks from the low made back during the week of April 17th. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of September 25th, which has been a move of 0.83% percent. Interestingly, the Dow Jones Industrials has been in a bullish phase for the past 9 months since the low established back in November 2016.

Critical support still underlies this market at 2055344 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.

Systematically, my long-term enquiry recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in August 2015 has been an extended Bullish trend in Dow Jones Industrials. This trend remain in motion as long as we hold above 1771343 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing.

Consequently, this has been a 8 year rally in motion since 2009. Caution is advisable since this is also 8 years up from the low of given that was the major low 2009. We must pay attention to the closing for this year. If we close lower at year end, beneath 1976260, then we can see a pause in the uptrend into next year. Penetrating intraday last year's low of 1545056 will confirm a serious correction into next year. However, we have rallied to exceed last year's high last month. We need to see a closing above 1998763 at year-end to see a continued rally is possible into next year. Exceeding this year's high next year and holding last year's low intraday will signal the bullish trend is still intact. A breach of last year's low of 1545056 intraday will negate that outcome.

On the subject of the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2022, 2024 and 2026. Considering all factors, there is a possibility of a decline moving into 2022 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2024. This pattern becomes a possibility if last year's low of 1545056 is penetrated even intraday. Directing our attention to the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only volatility. Focusing on the potential for sharp movement, our Panic Cycle targets for the period ahead to watch are during 2026. Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle differs from just volatility. This can be either an outside reversal or a sharp move in only one direction. Panic Cycles can be either up or down. Watch the oscillators and the reversals to determine the best indication of the potential direction.

Eyeballing the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of September 18th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 1998763. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 23 weeks. The last weekly level low was 2037955, which formed during the week of April 17th. The last high on the weekly level was 2241951, which was created during the week of September 18th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 24 months. The last monthly level low was 1537033, which formed during August 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 2217911, which was created during August.

• DiscoverGold

Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries