Just some random thoughts…
- While I never agreed with the wildly optimistic projections of ADXS having a value of $100 or more per share (at least not in this decade), or being worth many Billions just because KITE sold for $11B, that doesn’t mean that I think ADXS is only worth $175M (or lower) either.
- I continue to believe conservative fair value of ADXS is somewhere between $750M and $1.5M (if it was hypothetically for sale). The value would be on the higher end of that especially if they end up selling or licensing Her2, sign up a European partner, submit the Euro application, and get NEO trials and milestones started. Which could all happen in the next 3-6 months. So yeah, at this point I am prepared to ride this to $0 if necessary.
- Another reason why ADXS is so easily manipulated is the tiny Market Cap. It wasn’t over $500M long enough for many funds to even consider buying or taking a position. In fact, one of the factors involved with Broadfin and Sectoral selling out could have been fund rules around MC size, % loss from initial investment, etc.
- I am still unclear why DOC continued to spend so aggressively with no apparent concern about how he was going to replenish funds. He seemed very confident in his approach. Yes, sometimes it’s true that just because someone has a CEO title, it doesn’t mean they are qualified at their job or very good. But I do wonder if there was another subplot there why DOC seems so assured that he was going to achieve his end goals?
- It also makes me wonder what changed and why so fast? It’s pretty clear the BOD did not plan for DOC’s departure in advance. From all accounts I trust, DOC didn’t even see it coming. Very odd to me. Yeah DOC's gone, but it could end up mattering why and for what. Just have to wait and see if anything comes up and rears it's ugly head in the future on that, or if that era really is behind the company.
