Wade - I think it's risky either way. There is a lot of uncertainty in the frac sand market these days. You have the potential for all these new mines to open (60+ million tons of announcements), but then you have the other side of the story (increasing demand for sand, increasing sand intensity, environmental threats to new mine openings, labor and trucking shortages in the Permian). It's a very difficult environment to try and predict what will happen with so many moving variables. Hence the huge swings in stock prices day-to-day...
It's great to trade up and down if you have your ear to the ground, but very difficult to predict where things will ultimately shake out. I personally think the mine additions will continue and come to fruition, but bumps along the way due to environmental issues and labor/trucking issues. I don't think it makes sense to play these companies either way to be honest, given the massive uncertainty.
If you did want to short, I would target companies like FMSA that are more heavily leveraged and weighted toward Wisconsin sand.
