Aradigm Corp fka ARDMQ

[rikic]

Market value estimate.

See https://seekingalpha.com/article/4108783-aradigm-hidden-binary-event-russian-roulette-fda-spinning-chamber

The part of the page 20:

I made some quick calculations to try to estimate Aradigm's market value.

Grifols will fully commercialize Linhaliq in exchange for between 12.5% and 20% of revenues, by country, with revenues divided by half if there's a competitor in that country. I expect Bayer to begin to become a competitor at least six months after Aradigm and potentially longer if it needs to do another trial, so I estimate 12% royalties. Given that the royalties from revenues are pure earnings, I assign a 12 P/E from the revenue stream. I assume a 15% discount rate, 2021 sales of $750m, and $20m more in milestone payments. I discount the rest of the pipeline to zero.

Given:

A 15% discount rate,
2021 sales of $750m,
12% royalties and a 12 P/E,
a cumulative 40% dilution, and
$20m more in milestone payments...
...then working backwards, Aradigm should be worth perhaps (at least) ~$420m now (the discount rate here factoring in all risk, including chances), which is 18.7 times the market cap as of 9/21/2017 of ~$22.67m...