Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS)

[mpreorder]

I've been off the board all week. Hiking and poker in Colorado. Missed a 14er summit by around a 1/4 mile, but I didn't see anyone else my age up there, and some much younger turned around before I did. Beautiful hike and worth every step.

Anyway, before I left there was talk on the board about how Advaxis would get additional financing without dilution. If this as been discussed already please forgive me. The answer to me seemed pretty obvious because Lombardo actually stated it. Advaxis is going to sell HER2 rights. The question I'd like to ask and discuss it what is this worth? HER2 works in canine osteo and will be licensed shortly (we think). Since the dog model is the best animal model for pediatric osteo, it's likely to be safe and effective there as well. HER2, more importantly I believe, is expressed in a number of breast cancers - about 10-15% actually. There are around 250K new cases of BC in the US each year, so around 25K cases that can be treated with our construct. Lets say a 70% market penetration after a year or two - so around 17K cases we can bill for. Based on some things DOC said years ago I estimated a $70K treatment cost. So this works out to around 1.2B in sales annually. In the US alone. For breast cancer alone.

So, what is HER2 worth?

We should be clamoring for the sale of this construct to calm the waters and provide much needed shareholder value.