Hyperdynamics Corp (HDYNQ)

[Rule_62]

Actually, there are numerous claims contending this to be a long term play. Let's be serious, claims they will renew the lease, raise funds, and go on to drill another well, imply anything but a short term horizon.

Short term some are gambling on a good news PR. That may or may not happen. Personally, I would not hold this stock overnight banking on that happening, as the value will continue to erode as it has since the Friday hype. This stock has lost 60% of the price reached on Friday and again early Monday. Hype can't carry a stock facing the situation HDYN is facing. Anyone who bought into it above 14 cents and then and continuing to hold is now down. Some quite considerably.

One more factor: Every renegotiation with Guinea has resulted in HDYN surrendering a large position of the concession. They shot a lot of 2D seismic of areas that are no longer encompassed in the existing lease area. If by some means they renegotiate an exploration lease, I would again expect it to be a considerably smaller area than the current one.

Among other things, that will force them to select an area to retain far ahead of any chance to re-calibrate any exploration targets based on the new well data. Until that happens, they might as well put a map on the wall and throw darts to pick targets.