AI
Tuesday, September 19, 2017 2:27:00 PM
Future Net Oil Sales Update
had a long convo, and the long term F&D costs number seems to be king for accumulated revenue calculation.
The later being used for forward P/S multiple and stock price appreciation.
Note the 500% growth in 2018 and then half each followup year while doubling the well count, ending up in $207M net oil revenue per year with 60 wells!
01 also included a Worst-Case Scenario, resulting in about 54% of the proposed plan - which still is highly profitable.
What would be a fair bottom price today, appreciating the growth?
We think of a 2.5 year fwd accumulated net revenue, here this would result using end of 2019 results and an OS of fully diluted 73M. Around $45M $0.61/sh fair bottom for the projected plan or $25M $0.33/sh fair bottom for the worst case scenario, as a future fair bottom price soon.
The future ceiling should overcome previous spikes, hence we could simply take the 3.5 year range: $127M $1.73/sh top - or $69M $0.95/sh top for the worst case.
Edit: I personally hope it stays at low 50c for a little while, allowing us to accumulate here a little more.
However market appreciates the developing growth, having the first two wells starting producing end of this month, the CEO surely earned investor's trust. They accomplished compliance right on time yesterday AH, as being PR'ed today.
Company also only utilized dilution in a very disciplined manner, only used up the ATM as required - saving SH value. I personally wouldn't mind if they raise more money to accelerate the 60+ well goal much quicker - but that doesn't matter here.
had a long convo, and the long term F&D costs number seems to be king for accumulated revenue calculation.
The later being used for forward P/S multiple and stock price appreciation.
Note the 500% growth in 2018 and then half each followup year while doubling the well count, ending up in $207M net oil revenue per year with 60 wells!
01 also included a Worst-Case Scenario, resulting in about 54% of the proposed plan - which still is highly profitable.
What would be a fair bottom price today, appreciating the growth?
We think of a 2.5 year fwd accumulated net revenue, here this would result using end of 2019 results and an OS of fully diluted 73M. Around $45M $0.61/sh fair bottom for the projected plan or $25M $0.33/sh fair bottom for the worst case scenario, as a future fair bottom price soon.
The future ceiling should overcome previous spikes, hence we could simply take the 3.5 year range: $127M $1.73/sh top - or $69M $0.95/sh top for the worst case.
Edit: I personally hope it stays at low 50c for a little while, allowing us to accumulate here a little more.
However market appreciates the developing growth, having the first two wells starting producing end of this month, the CEO surely earned investor's trust. They accomplished compliance right on time yesterday AH, as being PR'ed today.
Company also only utilized dilution in a very disciplined manner, only used up the ATM as required - saving SH value. I personally wouldn't mind if they raise more money to accelerate the 60+ well goal much quicker - but that doesn't matter here.
