Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[punkle]

Duper, less than a week ago you were a perma-bear so it's tough to take guys like you seriously when you change your mind like the weather. Anyway, on your esteemed Philly Fed number, here's some historical data:

May-87 19.8
Jun-87 13.1
Jul-87 15.4
Aug-87 30.2
Sep-87 26.3
Oct-87 27.2
Nov-87 11.8
Dec-87 29.7
Jan-88 3.6
Feb-88 18.4
Mar-88 12.7
Apr-88 26.6
May-88 17.8
Jun-88 17.5
Jul-88 23.6
Aug-88 15.3

Remember, we crashed in October, 1987 when the Philly Fed had very consistent positive readings, in fact 26.3 the month before the crash which is higher than our current reading of 22.

And here's some more recent Philly Fed data:

May-02 7.3
Jun-02 20.4
Jul-02 5.9
Aug-02 -0.3
Sep-02 0.4
Oct-02 -7.5
Nov-02 6.5
Dec-02 11.3
Jan-03 11.2
Feb-03 2.3
Mar-03 -8
Apr-03 -8.8
May-03 -4.8
Jun-03 4
Jul-03 8.3
Aug-03 22.1

So frankly I see no real correlation between the Philly Fed and the market. I would be happy for somebody else to show me a correlation that makes sense.