I would never suggest those looking for a 50% or 100% gain on ADXS are wrong-headed, unless they are arguing that's all this company will ever be worth and one should sell when the pps gives them that gain for that reason.
As for this company getting sold for, say, $1B because it's only worth $250M now. No, I am confident the CEO and BOD would reject any such offer as unserious. Of course, it's highly unlikely a BP would bid 4x the current pps for a company like ADXS. They'd have a hard time explaining why they paid such a crazy premium.
The reality is that ADXS still has a lot to prove as to whether their science works well enough to convince others an FDA-approved therapy is all but guaranteed. I do not believe BP will buy ADXS before that milestone is met, because that's the industry benchmark for acquiring clinical companies like ADXS. And, the "all but guarantee" of an FDA-approved therapy will not happen, in my opinion, before interim review of AIM2CERV at the earliest. It's not clear if/ when that will happen, although I am hoping sometime in 2019. The study is planned to complete in 2020, but it's not clear when results will be announced, could be into 2021...and that's if there are no prior delay. Aratana approval will help, but such a milestone is not definitive. Other Ph1/2 trial results that may be announced in 2018 or 2019 will help, but will not be definitive.
If others disagree with that thesis, I'd be happy to hear opinions as to what point in product development ADXS would be attractive to BP and then, given that attractiveness of that point in product development, what the value of ADXS would be.
I think $7B is a minimum for AXAL plus the breadth of what a Lm NEO or HOT might well be able to deliver...although knowing the approvability of therapies from those platforms is even further off than 2019 or 2020. If AXAL works and Ph1/2 of NEO or HOT look good, we're off to the races.
