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Thursday, 08/31/2017 5:22:45 PM

Thursday, August 31, 2017 5:22:45 PM

Post# of 108192
To clarify my comments...

I apologize if I do not maintain an ongoing dialogue with those who reply to my comments. I run a business and only get sporadic opportunities to read/ comment here. I do appreciate the come-backs, it's what makes for vibrant examination of our various investment theses.

The reason I sound skeptical, suggest time-lines that are more extended than many believe likely, and believe further equity raises are likely at some point is only because I am very conservative in how I assess my riskiest investments. Despite what anyone might say or think, by any reasonable objective measure, ADXS is a long-shot (despite the GOG results, which clearly are good -- if not spectacular...I'm a statistician, so I can evaluate these things with some competence). Almost all pre-revenue oncology companies are risky, even with great Ph2 results. There's so much that can go wrong, even with good science and good management.

Much of what people suggest here is "best case" -- especially in terms of the timing of milestone events, both those highly likely to occur (except for timing), for example: Aratana approval, EU submission; and those more speculative (like new, lucrative partnerships) both in whether they will happen and in their timing. "Best case" is nice to dream about, but that's not good investing strategy.

Most VC's I know (and I know quite a few) always and constantly identify "what could go wrong" and make that the foundation of their assessment of each investment they make. They believe every investment will be a winner (or they wouldn't make it), but they also know that most will be losers - it's just that there's no way to know which winners will stumble.

So it is with ADXS. I expect it to be a huge winner -- and $50 isn't even close to what I think "the win" will be. But....it will take longer and may well be "costlier" (i.e., dilution) than most here imagine. So, talk about "getting to $10 or $15 or $25" I find irrelevant. I'm not looking for what will get the pps to those levels. I'm interested in whether what ADXS is doing will get us to $100 or $200+....
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