Home > Boards > Canadian > Mining/Resources > Niocorp Developments Ltd. (NIOBF)

I think there is a happy medium between

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Contrarian58   Friday, 08/25/17 07:32:38 PM
Re: A deleted message
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I think there is a happy medium between unrelenting cheerleading and non-stop negativism. The former is no real help to anyone and he latter begs the question "why are you here?" I've owned this stock since the Quantum days and have purchased nearly a half-million shares at prices ranging from less than a dime to a dollar (U.S.) I'm currently underwater but not losing a minute of sleep over it.

Is it possible that Niocorp has been overly-optimistic about scandium prices? In the near-term maybe not, in the long-term, possibly. That's the nature of supply and demand. If people can sell something for a lot of money, more of it will be dug up.

Is it possible that Niocorp won't be able to finance the project? Very possibly, but if so, some bigger fish will likely come along for a big chunk of equity. We won't be happy, but that's how the mining industry usually works.

Is it possible that an "unknown unknown" could derail he project? Yes, but I could also get hit by a bus crossing the street tomorrow. The project not going forward is very unlikely given the current regime in both the state and in Washington. There is plenty of money around for good projects.

Is it possible that I won't make a 10-15x return on he stock? Definitely, but I'd say a 3-5x return is a virtual certainty eventually, even if the company gets sold. The current stock value is simply too far below what the project is worth at its current state of maturity.

The bottom line? If you aren't patient, and have a low tolerance for risk, switch to an index fund or a basket of stocks. (I would stay away from Novo Resources though.) Nobody should have their life savings or the bulk of their retirement fund in any mining project at any state of development or production, unless they are a company founder and can't sell any stock. Given the potential of the Elk Creek carbonatite to produce a wide range of valuable elements (our project is the hole in a massive mineralized donut), I have no doubt the project will eventually be developed by somebody and at the very worst, I'll only make a small profit. That shouldn't be the end of the world for any prudent investor.

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