Monday, August 21, 2017 11:44:35 PM
Equation:
- EBITDA x Multiple / # shares
Assumptions for Model:
- EBITDA: 80% of revenue (software has crazy hight margin and this is conservative for BVTK)
- Multiple of EBITDA (low range): 7
- Multiple of EBITDA (high range): 15
When I plug the following revenue amounts, I get the below ranges for PPS:
- 100M: .08 - .17
- 250M: .20 - .43
- 500M: .40 - .86
Now, keep in mind cyber security is white hot. A big single government deal in this space, if you can get it, can quickly get into the hundreds of millions. In some extreme cases billions. Tom, is the Ex-Chief Commercialization Officer of the Pentagon! His connections are out of this world. And, because cyber security is such a hot space to be in the multiples can be much higher. This is a conservative estimate. Moreover, this does not even take into account other catalysts such as the patent or forthcoming buyback.
I believe 100M size deals is conservative. We could see 250M + deals come through. No joke. No BS. And, yes, that was plural. DEALS. Multiple huge massive poop your pants deals. In aggregate I would not be surprised if BVTK exceeds 500M.
Now … when these massive deals get announced (and they will likely happen after the stop sign comes down) BVTK is going to have a windfall of cash. Hhmm .. what will they do with all of that green? Sure, the team will give themselves raises and bonuses … but how do they become stinking wealthy? Their equity?
Did Tom just pledge all of his shares as collateral ?!
“As collateral security on certain obligations of the Company, Dr. Cellucci has pledged all of his shares of Series C Preferred Stock to holders of certain convertible promissory notes (see note 6).” https://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=75428109. Translation: Tom only benefits if the company does. His interests are 100% aligned with the shareholders.
So … with that in mind … would BVTK want to do a buyback after the windfall of cash? Of course. It’s a win-win for the BVTK team and shareholders. Yes, it is happening. Buybacks coming.
So again … 5 key catalysts (possibly 7) this year:
1. Stop sign comes down
2. Mega deal #1 gets announced
3. Mega deal # 2 gets announced
4. Buyback
5. Patent approval
*I’ve been hearing rumors of two more huge mega deals as well, but for now I am sticking with these 5.
Hope this helps those who are wondering how we are getting to dimeland +. It is happening.
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