Stubborn and naive, two traits that's going to get me to the 100$ party :)
Speaking of which; are we targeting 100$ for the PPS of SIAF excluding the stock dividends, or including?
On a more serious note; I don't think we're too far away from getting closeish to 100$.
If TW succeeds with IPO and listing then we're targeting 4xNTA for the IPO, i.e close to 15USD. The IPO should be a conservative number for the PPS of TW, so let's say our 0.8 dividend shares are worth 15USD in addition to the retained shares in SIAF for another 15USD.
Next up is SJAP. I assume that's our most capex heavy subsidiary. Let's guess 2xNTA and NTA of 10$ (of our 25 dilluted book value). Might be a bit optimistic, but that'll give us 10USD in divi and another 10USD retained in SIAF.
I assume CA will be the third. If TW is successful we're looking at 30MUSD earnings over five years? Excluding further farms, as well as mergers and partners abroad. However, we don't know how much TW will grow after the megafarm, so let's say P/E of 10 and1.2 EPS as a wild guess. That's another 6USD for divi as well as 6 for SIAF.
Then we have the rest. 25USD fully dilluted book value, say 10USD for MEIJI and the rest. Assuming we haven't carved them out we then have 0 in divi and 10 for SIAF.
In total 31USD in divi and 41USD in SIAF, i.e 72USD. Not too far away from 100, but we're not going to trade at P/B of 1 for the 41 in SIAF. If we got rid of the a-shares our P/B should increase, but a cash divi would help as well - maybe a PPS with 5-10% yield.
SIAF has incredible potential; if TW succeeds with the IPO we can have a promising growth company that gives dividend (SIAF through CA). However, we'll be voulnerable towards TWs success, both short-term and long-term unless CA gets a partner or SJAP succeeds in a turn-around.
