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Re: Triple9 post# 72953

Monday, 08/07/2017 1:35:15 PM

Monday, August 07, 2017 1:35:15 PM

Post# of 144814

Finally, Johnson & Johnson is probably going to remain very active on the acquisition front, relying on inorganic growth to push its long-term growth rate higher. In particular, I would expect the company to remain active in exploring acquisitions within the drug space.

For those who may not recall, J&J recently completed a mammoth transaction that brought Swiss-based Actelion's specialty lung-disease drug portfolio under its wing for the not-so-cheap price of $30 billion. Specifically, J&J is counting on pulmonary arterial hypertension drugs Opsumit and Uptravi to reach in the neighborhood of $2 billion each in peak annual sales, and it's hoping its 16% stake in Idorsia, the spun-off company containing Actelion's developing therapies, pans out. The acquisition of Actelion is expected to boost J&J's long-term growth rate by 1.5% to 2%.

However, J&J is better known for gobbling up small- and mid-cap drug developers, because it tends to prefer taking control of the drug development process from smaller companies. One company that may be firmly on J&J's radar is Geron (NASDAQ:GERN), which it already has a licensing partnership with.

In 2014, Geron wound up receiving $35 million in upfront cash and had $900 million in various milestones dangled like a carrot, along with possible sales royalties, so J&J could get its hands on imetelstat. In early-stage trials, imetelstat became the only drug ever to produce a partial or complete response in patients with myelofibrosis, a rare disease that causes scarring of the bone marrow. Since no other drugs have been shown to treat the actual disease, imetelstat could become a blockbuster drug, if approved. If that's the case, J&J could just gobble up Geron in a buyout.

There you have this Fool's prediction. Look to specialty pharma, medical devices, and a steady stream of acquisitions to fuel Johnson & Johnson's growth over the next 10 years.


Know What You Own. My posts should not be construed as investment advice.

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