Vericel Corp. (VCEL)

[commoncentsinvestor]

For the 2nd straight quarter I would advise VCEL investors to temper their earnings expectations. Right prior to Q1 earnings report I posted a message saying revenues would be lower than expected, that it would cause a momentary dip in price but that it would rebound quickly. On the day of the report the price went as low as 2.35 but quickly came back and closed with a gain of .05 for the day. And since then, the price has gotten as high as 3.55.

MACI was only approved the end of December and the first surgery wasn't until Feb. 1st. The first quarter was spent mainly contacting and training surgeons. Than, of course, as they find qualified patients there is the 6-8 week delay between the arthroscopy and when the final surgery takes place. Than it takes time to get reimbursement. So it would be improbable to expect huge MACI revenues in Q2. I think more people understand the time factor and we may not get the same type of price dip even if revenues are not great. The important statistics are the number of biopsies, and the number of trained MACI surgeons. The added good news would be increases in Epicel revenues and progress with ixCell and the ICT partnership. Plenty of good stuff to look forward to.

For the sake of full disclosure, I have been and still am very, very long VCEL. I did sell about 30% of my holdings over $3.40 but will be reacquiring those after earnings whatever the price may be. Q3 is already 1/3 over and it is now and going forward that the real revenue progress will begin to explode. Over the next 6 months I expect Vericel to become a darling of the institutions and at least triple its current share price. Still believe it is the surest bet I have come across in the market in quite some time.