Thank you. I try to be honest. I am mostly writing to myself because that is sometimes how I think through things. Of course, I realize that I am sometimes wrong although I try to be diligent. I may be premature, but it pays to be cautious at this point I think.
I try to think slowly. CNBC, NBC, Fox or whatever must tell their stories in bites that appeal to a broad audience. Don't get me wrong; they provide an excellent service. I am just saying though that they can only scratch the surface. Here's an example, the latest employment report. If you dig below the surface, it is not that great.
The unemployment rate reported doesn't include people who have stopped looking for work. Moreover, it counts part-time workers as fully employed. A broader measure of unemployment (U-6) includes people unemployed or underemployed and currently sits at 8.6%, which is twice as high as the number in focus. This suggests that we're nowhere close to real full employment as does the percent of workers participating in the work force. I think this is one reason why wages aren't rising faster in the face of the so-called near full employment.
There are many problems we face when we analyze this aging bull market.
That said, you may see more thrusts upward in equity prices, but, again, where is the top. There is always a top. There is always a bottom. Most investors buy at the top and sell at the bottom. I try to sell near the top (no one can forecast a precise top) and buy near the bottom (no one knows an exact bottom). It is not easy, and I sometimes fail. However, I would rather come up a little short than to lose by a wide margin.
Lastly, I respect others, and I do not intend to offend anyone. As I said, I write mostly for my benefit. Whatever, I publish is what I conclude from always staying on top of my investments of funds gained from a long life of hard work. Others, I am sure are smarter than I am, and they can rightly decide for themselves what is best for them.
