Short Term Traders-Listed Stocks

[hettygreen]

http://www.zealllc.com/2006/oilcorr.htm

Zeal essay 9/15/2006:

CNBC interviews considered in aggregate offer a good read on prevailing sentiment.

Some of the things I heard on CNBC this week were amazing, reflecting absolutely horrendous commodities sentiment. I lost count of the number of analysts who claimed that the “commodities bubble” is over and we are entering the bust phase. One gentleman who was interviewed compared the commodities stocks earlier this year to the NASDAQ mania in March 2000, implying commodities stocks are going to plunge.

A prominent CNBC host repeatedly made the assertion that this commodities bull was sparked by the September 11th terrorist attacks. Another fellow said that since the CRB Index broke its uptrend, the commodities bull has officially ended. These assertions are just plain silly, of course, but the mere fact they were airing en masse reflects just how damaged commodities sentiment has become due to the recent sharp corrections. They are easy to refute.

The bottom line is nothing has changed fundamentally in the global oil markets in just a month. The sharp selloff in oil is merely a psychological response driven by fear-laden sentiment. Wall Street has convinced many speculators that oil fundamentals don’t matter and only crises drive oil. While not true, the lull in geopolitical and storm events in this past month has played into this prevailing mindset anyway and sparked selling.