Twitter Inc (TWTR)

[JetsamTrader]

A TWTR buyout isn't in the cards right now IMO. My thoughts in no particular order...

TWTR as a niche can be a mismatch for a lot of potential buyers. Too toxic for Disney, too costly for Salesforce, not enough for FB, etc.

No one wants to inherit TWTR's massive employee compensation obligation and TWTR has yet to address this problem.

If TWTR isn't in a clear win or lose state, a buyer will take a massive hit to their pps from investors unhappy with buying an unprofitable company as we saw with Salesforce or paying too much for a marginally successful one.

Larger interested buyers already spoke with their actions. They ran from the negotiating table and began copying or stealing anything of value that TWTR can offer like Amazon stealing the NFL, FB/GOOG bolstering their live streaming products, etc.

Competitors are already winning the war for advertisers so why do they need TWTR?

I used to think that TWTR's user data could be valuable until I realized that companies like FB and GOOG already have these users.

TWTR doesn't own any IP to prevent others from competing directly with streaming.

Optimists prevent the buy by bidding up the pps. What do they expect for a sale price anyway? They bid the pps up to $25 but TWTR would probably only sell via a fire sale in the low teens.