Thursday, July 27, 2017 1:36:26 PM
In his latest investing memo to clients, Marks — one of the most widely-read and respected investing pros out there — strikes an extremely cautious tone and recalls two memos he published in years most investors would like to forget: 2000 and 2007.
Those memos cautioned on the excesses of the tech boom and housing markets, respectively.
“Since I’m convinced ‘they’ are at it again — engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions — it’s time for yet another cautionary memo,” Marks writes.
“Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains… Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.”
In his memo, Marks outlines what he calls the seeds for a boom, which include things like more money than ideas (the current bull market is often attributed to a surge in liquidity), willing suspension of disbelief among investors (“this time is different“), and pursuit of the new (think FAANG), among others.
And it is this final idea, and the FAANG stocks, that perhaps sends the clearest warning to investors that they ignore history — and fairly recent history at that — at their own peril.
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