Dynavax Technologies Corp (DVAX)

[MrGuru]

Went out of predictions business long time back. I just read the documents and made the best decision with a positive mathematical expectancy.

With FDA there is simply no guarantee.

After reading the FDA Briefing Document and, importantly, the consultant opinion, I believe the probability of approval is in the Long side. I was expecting a $12-$14 price prior to AdComm (unfortunately this does not seem to be panning out). A positive outcome (vote) would value the stock 20-30 % higher. Taking the lower value and a 25% up-marking after AdComm (if positive results) we should have a $15 SP.

FDA approval should take the price to $18-20 (I am not factoring in the value of SD-101, which seems to be forgotten at the moment).

In any case, I am taking positions with these numbers in mind. Hope it happens.

Note: I have been holding a sizable position in DVAX for 8 months now.