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WHAT'S chutzpah??

Sorry but English is not my first language. I spoke nothing but Yiddish and Romanian until I was 5.

Observing one's forecast errors is helpful. In fact, it's one very good reason to make clear predictions. Only clear falsifiable forecasts allow one to notice errors.

Weather forecasters are amongst the best calibrated of all forecasters (i.e., they are knowledgeable about their own level of knowledge) because their forecasts are specific enough to make errors obvious. For more on the topic see book Expert Political Judgment by Phil Tetlock.

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