As all gamblers should do, as well as any risk takers, or even stock investors, one must weight the risk versus the reward. When the drilling began in the JDZ it appeared the chance for success of just one well was very good. So buying shares of ERHC it appeared to me the risk was low and the reward was high. To throw out my thoughts, I believed the was at least a 25% chance of one of the 6 drilling sites of finding oil. I thought this was very a very conservative believe. I also believed if oil was found, the share price would more than quadruple. Those odds would indicate the investment would be successful. Needless to say the JDZ did not have any successful drilling results.
Now, let's look at Kenya where the the one well had a 18.8% chance of success. Would the share price rise 5x if oil was found? IMO, the share would go up much higher than 5x because at the time the share price was very low and was ready to explode if oil was found. So even with only an 18.8% chance of success, ERHC was worth the risk and a good investment. As a gambler, I know even if the odds are in your favor, you don't always win. In is case ERHC would only win 18.8% of the time and in our case it just didn't happen. But because it didn't happen in our case does not make it a bad investment. The fact that both the JDZ and Kenya were not successful was for the most part just plain bad luck, not a bad investment. The fact that management failed be a success with all the assets and money they had did make it a bad investment, because with all management had they still have been successful.
The share price remains in the mills or mil rays, that's 001? or soon 000? Will we EVER see a penny again? Most here have hope, my hope has left the building and this board
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