I had not seen this analysis before! Great find, and big thanks for finding and sharing!
I will note that this was published before the latest pricing models were announced (est. $1.2M per system vs. earlier estimates of $950K). I don't know if system pricing was a factor in determining percentages of purchase within the stated market opportunities. If so sales numbers (systems) could be reduced due to increased pricing, but revenues could still be greater due to the price increase.
In any case, the analysis could be considered as another validation of SPORT as an eventual competitor in the market.
If they are correct, absolute worst case of appx. 1200 systems sold in 15 years at $1.2M each is $1.44B in system sales revenue. Add in service contracts at close to $100K/yr and assume 7.5 years average per system (5 year lifespan, fewer replacements, longer retention due to lesser utilization in smaller facilities, etc... Ballpark numbers, but viable) is almost another billion for service contracts. Reusables and disposables per case, estimate about $1000 per procedure, and average maybe 500 cases per year/per system... $500K per system/per year times 1200 systems times 7.5 years per system = $4.5B additional revenue over those 15 years. About $7B in revenue for 15 years is the absolute worst case according to that analysis. Top end is more than double those numbers.
What is the stock worth market cap) for a company destined to do $10B or more in sales? (That's conservatively averaging worst and best case scenarios, $7B to $15B or more... Okay, that's over 15 years, so just under $700M/year.) If a fair market cap was 3 to 5 years of revenue (we'll say 4 on average) that would be $3B in market capitalization, or about $12 per share (all very loose ballpark numbers; it's very late and my neighbor opened a bottle of Johnnie Walker Blue so... I helped him out with that).
I would say to buy all you can at anything under twelve cents a share and you should be sitting on a hundred bagger investment!
