Biotech Values

[ghmm]

ARNA:

I just don't get the move today. If I followed ARNA more closely I'd be considering a short/puts here (and I've never shorted a stock). Its very likely IMO management was not totally forthcoming with the data as there are more questions then evidence of efficacy. I think the only approved PAH drugs were on 6MW or Mortality. On the call they think a 120-150 patient study would be sufficient (I don't think so) but giving them the benefit of the doubt the time to enroll will be quite long (based on how long it took their P2 and the number of already approved/in development prostacyclins I'd say a couple years). If they go for 6MW I don't think 120-150 is near large enough (on this data) and if they go for mortality it will be a much larger and longer study. I've not stayed up on PAH to know how FDA would view just PVR as an end point. So with all that if they make it to market they stand way behind in a highly competitive space now even in their mechanism they face competition from multiple companies!