FOR NEW (& existing) INVESTORS, HERE ARE SOME OF MY THOUGHTS & FACTS I RESEARCHED:
Hi guys. I normally post in the Yahoo Finance Boards, but I felt the need to share this information I found with you on AVEO. I've copied/pasted it and made some grammatical corrections. Enjoy.
My UPDATED thoughts:
The stock price was in the mid $7 range before the fiasco. With similar market sizes and the support strength of the stock price after the last run-up from 70 cents to over $2 (300%+ increase where other pump and dump stocks normally sells off in 2-3 days), I expect AVEO to rise to $6 or higher before mid-August (although the announcement can be sooner). For those who knows how to read charts, you guys and gals know exactly what I'm talking about. The 1 month chart shows MASSIVE support like you wouldn't believe it.
The 90% chance of approval from the EMA is a huge factor (see links below for facts). Short interests is only 2%, so short covering are not what's keeping this stock up. It's longs buying and holding for a huge payday. If approved by the EMA, I expect the stock price to jump anywhere from 70% to 100% on the announcement ($10-$12).
The best part is FDA approval is in sight (trials are being done now, and results expected first quarter of 2018), it could very well make it to high teens or $20 early next year (or the end of this year). Warren Buffet loves the stock market because he says all the information is available for everyone. It's a level playing field. He wins because he researches and believes what he's researched. See the stock EXEL? As someone pointed, AVEO reminds me of EXEL. There are some once in a lifetime opportunities. I believe we are looking at it.
FACTS:
-In late April, 2013 the stock price was around $7.50, awaiting the FDA approval of AVEO's kidney cancer drug, tivozanib (Fotivda).
-A review document from the FDA was not in favor due to "inconsistent" testing/results, sending the stock price down to around $5. A few days later when the FDA's official decision came back as a negative, the stock price went further down to the mid $2 range, where it's drifted down to sub $1. Some good articles to read from 2013:
www.fiercebiotech.com/r-d/updated-aveo-shares-plunge-after-fda-review-raises-fears-of-tivozanib-rejection
https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2013/08/25/what-went-wrong-aveo-pharmaceuticals/nurRUkhxi5OzRyDvXwlr3N/story.html
-Four plus years later of hard work, AVEO's drug received a recommendation from EU's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) on June 23rd, 2017 for the European Medicines Agency (EMA, the EU's FDA equivalence) to approve, sending the stock price up from 70 cents, multiple days in a row to over $2.
-This new run-up appears to be a new series of longs and possibly institutions jumping in. In other words, the run, just like the last one, appears to be legit.
-Final decision from the EMA was scheduled to be 67 days from June 23, or roughly August 29, 2017. It could be sooner, but that's around the latest date for the decision.
-EMA success rates for approval for companies seeking and following scientific advice from CHMP is 90% (meaning you roll a dice with 10 sides, if you get 1-9, you win the lottery):
www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/news_and_events/news/2014/01/news_detail_002006.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058004d5c1
-Kidney cancer cases in the U.S. and EU are approximately similar:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kidney_cancer
-AVEO would need to get good results from trials currently being done comparing Fotiva against the current approved drug, Nexavar, for FDA approval. Results are expected in the first quarter of 2018.
