Hey Turks,
It would be great to see an upturn in 3Q sales, but I'm not so sure. Everything appears to be pointing towards increased demand for probuphine in terms of the worsening opioid epidemic, Congress finally acknowledging the problem and Braeburn's shift in training strategy, but there is not any evidence over the last 12 months that any of that will actually translate to sales.
It seems to me that Braeburn and the insurance companies are playing one huge game of "chicken." Braeburn has priced the implant at $5,000 a treatment, and insurance companies all seem to require prior authorization and do not include probuphine has a preferred treatment (many medicaid plans do not even include it in their formulary). It's infuriating, because by pricing probuphine so high, Braeburn is not allowing it to become a "go to" treatment method. When their injectable is approved, they will match (or go lower) than any price Indivior charges for its injectable. So you will have injectables prices at roughly the same as sublingual therapy, but probuphine will be this unaffordable therapy that only extremely affluent addicts (not a huge population) can afford. Personally, I couldn't justify spending $3,000 a treatment ($6,000 a year) more on having an implant when you could get an injectable at roughly the same price as pills.
I don't think there will be any cash with the EU deal. US sales haven't shown commercial success, so why would anybody pay up front for something that doesn't sell.
If they don't get bought out for pennies on the dollar, Titan's best hope, in my opinion, would be to outlicense Parkinsons now or after Phase 1/2 results are available. That would allow for some upfront cash, and free them up to develop T3 (a bigger market than Parkinsons and Probuphine combined) and own it outright.
