Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[KMBJN]

Man, it's hard to project from P-IIa to P-IIb due to small numbers in IIa and high placebo effect, lack of a prominent dose-response effect, apparent high dropout rate, unknown MOA (abacavir is *not* the active moiety, then what is?), not to mention changing scales... but I'll go for a somewhat optimistic guess:

We see a 30% PASI-75 success rate at 12 weeks in the 300 mg arm and 35% in the 400 mg arm, compared to 5% PASI-75 for placebo, without any serious side effects. So, we match Otezla with better side effect profile, and with slightly faster results. Agree that would be great.

Our PASI-75 success rate could be anywhere from 10% to 50% (95% CI) in the 300 mg arm in moderate-severe psoriasis patients.

Worse case is no better than placebo (15% chance both 5-10% responses?), possible that not as effective as Otezla (35% odds get 10-25% PASI-75), probable match of Otezla (40% odds get 25-35% PASI-75), and small chance better than Otezla (10%, 35-50% PASI-75).

Just some WAGs.