Sunday, June 18, 2017 4:01:01 PM
Of all the TA stuff only the volume and oscillators being overbought gives one pause. The volume is high enough to have been a "blow-off top" (details below) and the oscillators would cause folks to fear for a re-trace even knowing things can stay overbought longer than one might expect.
The real negatives emanate from my possibly irrational belief that this can't go on forever, and in fact should not have gone on at all considering the ATM, obvious manipulation, etc. But I'm not comfortable prognosticating solely on that sort of stuff.
So based on the technical indications, except for the volume and length of the run up into earnings reporting, I would remain bullish and call for more near-term upside. Based on the possibly irrational concerns I would get all negative.
Solution? Meet in the middle and go agnostic. I'll wait and see.
Today was the scheduled FY '17 Q4 and EOY results release and conference call. There was no sign in the AH trading that the market had a negative view of the report. Price held within a reasonable range of where it traded during the day.
The PR for FY '17 Q4 and EOY is here.
The FY '17 Q4 & EOY 10-K SEC filing is here.
The conference call transcript is here.
There were nine pre-market trades totaling 25.1K at 8:00 (w/o apparent cause yet): 8:00 $0.83 x 5K, $0.85 x 5K, $0.83 x 4 K, x 1K; 8:17 $0.75 x 100; 9:28 $0.77 x 4.4K, x 100, x 4.9K x 100.
After the open at $0.7422 the rest of the day was predominantly one of up, flat, up, flat, ... into a close at $0.7750. Volume was good, thanks to a lot of 1-minute volume spikes interrupting a lot of extremely low/no-volume minutes. There was a high number of larger trades that took 48 % 52 % (w/o opening/closing blocks & with those blocks) of day's volume. Late trading, much after the CC, held up well doing ~41.6K $0.75-$0.82 and ended at $0.7805.
B/a just before open was 100:1.6K $0.77/8.
09:30-09:54 opened the day with a 76,524 block trade sell for $0.7422 & $0.7450 x 100, x 500, $0.76 x 1K, $0.7422 x 400, $0.7450 x 370, x 230, $0.745 x 13, $0.7422 x 3, $0.7422 x 125, $0.7450 x 1.9K, $0.7485 x 3.1K. B/a just after open was 2K:7.5K $0.7350/$0.75. Then came 9:32's 12.6K $0.74 (900)/$0.7351 (6K)/00 (2K)/10 (955)/03/00 (2.5K), 9:34's 720 $0.7299 (320)/$0.7298 (200)/96 (230), 9:36's 3K $0.7299, 9:38's b/a 500:200 $0.7221/$0.73, 9:38's 2.3K $0.7221 (500)/91 (300)/$0.73 300/$0.7292 (500)/$0.73 (600), 9:42's 4K $0.7292 (200)/$0.73 (400)/$0.7292 (200)/$0.73 (450)/$0.7298 (2.5K)/$0.73 (2.5K), 9:43's 200 $0.73, 9:44's 2K $0.73, 9:47's b/a 500:200 $0.7250/$0.73, 9:54's b/a 600:200 $0.7267/$0.73 (bids rising). The period ended on 9:54's 8.4K $0.73.
09:55-10:28 had b/a at 9:55 of 700:1.2K $0.7330/$0.7499. Trade began an extremely low/no-volume, with frequent 1-minute volume spikes through 10:15, sag from $0.7488/9, on 9:55's 101 $0.7488. Volume was interrupted by 10:00's 10.5K (incl 9.5K blk) $0.7499. B/a at 10:02 was 30:400 $0.7400/77 (bids backed by presented 700 $0.7330), 10:08 100:400 $0.7330/$0.7477. 10:11's 4.1K hit $0.7345/30/00/$0.7250 (2K)/20/$0.73/2/4. B/a at 10:17 was 2K:1.1K $0.7250/$0.74. The period ended on 10:28's 500 $0.7251.
10:29-10:57, after two no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume rise on 10:31's 5K $0.7270. 10:32's 800 hit $0.7299. B/a at 10:33 was 1.5K:500 $0.7305/98. 10:35's 3.6K hit $0.7399/8/$0.7456/$0.75/$0.7498. Volume was interrupted by 10:38's 16.7K $0.7485/99 (1.1K)/$0.75 (~12.2K)/$0.7498 (3K) and that ended the elevated prices and began an extremely low/no-volume decline. 10:43's 14.6K did $0.7423/06/00 (13.5K). 10:46's 4.5K did $0.7308/00 (3K). B/a at 10:47 was 15K:600 $0.73/$0.74041s. The period ended on 10:57's 5K $0.7303/2 (4K).
10:58-13:38 began a slow, extremely low/no-volume, rise from 11:02's 2.6K $0.7404 (600)/3 (2K), first doing $0.7397/$0.7423. B/a at 11:02 was 100:200 $0.7301/$0.7423. Volume was interrupted by 11:25's 10K block $0.7423. B/a at 11:27 was 800:200 $0.7415/23. 11:32's 1.7K did $0.7498. B/a at 11:40 was 900:1.3K $0.7498/$0.75. 11:41's 2.5K did $0.75. B/a at 11:49 was 900:100 $0.7498/$0.75, 12:02 100:200 $0.7499/$0.75. Volume was interrupted by 12:03's 5.6K $0.75 and 12:15's 9K $0.75. B/a at 12:17 was 100:200 $0.7499/$0.75. Volume was interrupted by 12:18's 35.1K $0.75 (2 x 17K blk trades). B/a at 12:19 was 300:200 $0.7499/$0.75, 12:32 3.8K:10.2K $0.7499/$0.75. 12:42's 7.2K hit $0.7500 (2.5K)/01 (700)/ ... 00 (400)/01 (1.1K)/75 (200). Volume was interrupted by 12:45's 9.2K $0.7499/$0.7515, 12:46's 10K $0.75 and 12:47's 10K $0.75. B/a at 12:47 was 2K:120 $0.7499/$0.75. Volume was interrupted by 12:52's 13K $0.75. 13:00's 11.3K did $0.7562/63/75/$0.76/$0.7574/$0.76 (5.2K). B/a at 13:02 was 3.2K:2.6K $0.7599/$0.76. 13:07's 10.1K did $0.7600/50 (9K) and 13:09's 5.9K did $0.7630/49/14/93/$0.77. B/a at 13:17 was 100:1.5K $0.7621/$0.7699, 13:32 100:100 $0.7622/98. The period ended on 13:38's 37.4K $0.7598 (2.4K)/$0.77 (30.4K blk)/$0.7650 (3K)/99 (1.5K)/49 (100).
13:39-15:17 began extremely low/no-volume (with the common 1-minute volume spikes) $0.7621/99, with slowly rising lows and more slowly falling highs, on 13:39's 100 $0.7699. B/a at 13:47 was 66:1.7K $0.7670/98 (bids backed by presented 600 $0.7650), 14:02 300:3.1K $0.7698/9, 14:17 1.7K:100 $0.7624/97 (bids falling rapidly), 14:32 3K:100 $7661/97 (bids rising), 14:47 1K:100 $0.7600/97 (bids jiggling 00/01), 15:02 500:100 $0.7651/$0.7736 (bids rising), 15:17 200:100 $0.7699/$0.7738. The period ended on 15:17's 525 $0.7736.
15:18-15:50 began an extremely low/no-volume brief sideways $0.7501/$0.77 through 15:35 on 15:18's 41.5K $0.7699 (1.5K)/$0.7500 (33,450 blk)/01/00 (6.4K). B/a at 15:24 was 23.2K:10 $0.75/$0.7623 (offers backed by presented 200 $0.77 & 10K $0.7737), 15:32 759:100 $0.7501/$0.77. 15:36 onward began a variable-volume, no/low/medium/high, rise on 15:36's 4K $0.7699. B/a at 15:47 was 7.2K:100 $0.7650/99. The period ended on 15:50's 42.8K $0.7677 (1.9K)/$0.7737 (10K blk)/00 (2.2K)/49 (1K)/00/49/$0.7651/$0.7750 (26.4K)/51 (559).
15:51-16:00 began mostly medium/higher-volume $0.7750/$0.78 on 15:51's 20.4K $0.7751 (6K)/50 (1.4K)/51 (5K)/$0.78 (7K)/$0.7788 (1K). The period and day ended on 15:59's 26.1K $0.7750/97/50/$0.78 (2.4K)/$0.7798 (2.4K)/$0.78 (2K)/$0.7798 (2K)/$0.78/$0.7798/75/94/$0.78 (10.3K)/$0.7775/51 (4.1K(/53 (900)/51/99 and 16:00's 15.3K sell for $0.775.
There were 31 AH trades totaling 41.8K shares with price ranging from $0.75 to $0.82.
Including the opening and closing trades, there were 62 larger trades (>=5K & 13 4K+) totaling 589,332, 58.02% of day's volume, with a $0.7622 VWAP. Excluding the opening and closing trades, there were 60 larger trades totaling 497,467, 48.98% of day's volume, with a $0.7648 VWAP. Even considering the day's volume, the count seems rather higher than normal. The percentage of day's volume is very high. I suspect this is a result of the combination of normal (used to be anyway) run up into earnings and the bullish charts resulting from successful manipulation, by Cowan & Co. most likely, to sell $CPST shares via the ATM facility (per the reports it turns out they were using this extensively during the fourth quarter and I suspect it is still so).
An impressive item is again the wide, reasonably even, distribution of the larger trades throughout the day. Certainly looks like bullish behavior.
The VWAPs are both above the day's $0.7608. I guess folks (short-term traders?) were loading up in anticipation of a bullish response to the reported results.
It appears that a lot of larger orders had to be filled in multiple steeps, likely account for the high count of both 4K and larger trades, along with the more consistent distribution throughout the day.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:28 25100 $0.7500 $0.8500 $20,325.00 $0.8098 2.47% 60.16% Incl 08:00 5,000 $0.8300 $0.8500
09:28 $0.7700 4,900 4,900
09:54 120470 $0.7221 $0.7600 $89,061.36 $0.7393 11.86% 26.74% Incl 09:30 $0.7422 76,524 09:32 $0.7351 5,955
10:00 $0.7499 9,500
10:28 28598 $0.7200 $0.7499 $21,123.44 $0.7386 2.82% 30.03% Incl 10:31 $0.7270 5,000
10:57 70483 $0.7270 $0.7500 $52,022.44 $0.7381 6.94% 33.02% Incl 10:38 $0.7500 5,000 10:43 $0.7400 4,800
10:43 $0.7400 7,500 10:47 $0.7300 13,071
10:57 $0.7302 4,000
13:38 299808 $0.7387 $0.7700 $226,185.91 $0.7544 29.52% 61.55% Incl 11:25 $0.7423 10,000 11:37 $0.7497 5,000
$0.7500 12:03 4,200 12:18 17,300 17,400
$0.7500 12:31 6,000 12:32 7,000
$0.7500 12:45 7,000 12:47 8,234
$0.7500 12:52 4,572 12:56 14,800
12:59 $0.7563 6,000 7,700
13:00 $0.7600 5,000 13:07 $0.7650 8,973
13:33 $0.7697 4,000 13:38 $0.7700 30,373
15:17 145731 $0.7620 $0.7736 $111,956.91 $0.7682 14.35% 63.20% Incl 13:50 $0.7660 4,300 13:54 $0.7621 5,000
14:05 $0.7649 9,100 14:11 $0.7650 4,600
14:19 $0.7697 7,400 14:26 $0.7698 5,600
14:32 $0.7696 6,000 14:46 $0.7697 6,300
14:58 $0.7698 5,000 15:14 $0.7699 6,000
15:50 156310 $0.7500 $0.7751 $119,596.51 $0.7651 15.39% 59.31% Incl 15:18 $0.7500 4,210 33,450
15:36 $0.7699 4,000 15:38 $0.7648 9,675
15:39 $0.7737 11,119 15:49 $0.7652 5,750
15:50 $0.7737 10,000 $0.7750 8,600 15,300
16:00 123082 $0.7750 $0.7800 $95,675.79 $0.7773 12.12% 59.10% Incl 15:51 $0.7751 6,000 5,000 4,000
15:56 7,800 $0.7750 $0.7757
15:58 $0.7751 5,000 $0.7800 20,000
15:59 $0.7800 9,400 $0.7751 4,100
16:00 $0.7750 15,341
19:24 41648 $0.7500 $0.8200 $33,355.90 $0.8009 4.10% 60.46% Incl 16:26 $0.7800 6,200 18:31 $0.8200 14,585
19:03 $0.8150 8,000
Movements of VWAP and buy percentages seem reasonably well-connected. Today there weren't as many big b/a buy imbalances as seen recently. A few appeared around 11:00ish, when "west coasties" might arrive and the last 45 minutes had more occurrences than most of the rest of the day. I guess this means price was moving in the right direction without the need for help. "Right direction" for whom? I'll leave that to the reader.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
What's not to like? I'll tell you - rules disallow the real high, set in pre-market, of $0.85, +15.65%. That would look really good on the charts. Regardless, the bullish behavior just keeps on going with increasing volume as part of the run up into earnings. A cautionary note may be in order. Is it possible this has run "too far, too fast", making the equivalent of a bubble caused by unrealistic expectations? I don't know, let's hope not. Long-time holders have suffered enough and deserve a little ray of sunshine here. Having said that, the volume was well above yesterday's 10-day average of ~231.4K and we may be seeing a "blow-off top" here. I don't know, but I am concerned.
__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 3.08% 2.86% 6.12% 7.34% 155.47%
Prior 4.41% 2.91% 2.08% 4.64% 52.44%
Yesterday I said { ...I do think with the [/]apparent manipulation and apparent run up into earnings occurring, based on the volume seen, a confirmation of breakout is likely tomorrow on again rising volume. } Did and done! Confirmed breakout and on rising volume!
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { ... So along with yesterday's confirmation of a breakout above the long-term descending resistance, we have an apparent breakout above the next resistance, needing only a confirmation of that one tomorrow. On rising volume today I suspect we just keep going up. The last few days I have been saying we should have more upside left and I think that's still the case. } Today we also pushed up and closed above the longer-term rising past support/resistance (rising orange line). This offers the possibility of another confirmed breakout, especially since it's on rising volume.
But do consider my concern about "blow-off top" above.
N.B. Considering how far and fast we've recently risen, we've got to be aware that these sorts of moves are often followed by sudden re-traces, especially if the push up is due to high expectations that aren't met in the reported results. If we add in the likely continued use of the ATM facility, I think a sudden re-trace becomes more likely because DJ will have a hard time resisting garnering more cash at these (artificially?) elevated prices. If there's any warrant holders in the money they will likely also look to take advantage.
Trade range was again almost completely at and above (maybe 75% if pre-market is included, ~50% sans that) the rising fast EMA's $0.7371, which is above the rising slow EMA's $0.6830.
We are still pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band upper limit - for the seventh day now. yesterday I was still not concerned, manipulation, run up to earnings and all. Today I'm starting to get that queasy feeling that this is all too good to be true.
Discussing the volume bars' "cupping pattern", I've been seeing that as a positive and yesterday held with { ... well, today the volume is more supportive of that (bullish sentiment) even if manipulation has been occurring. }
Today not so much. Volume is ~238% above the 10-day moving average and I'm definitely concerned that this may have exhausted buyers and, along with price levels, attracted shorters. If the results reporting doesn't inspire a huge surge of bullishness in a large number of buyers, this could be trouble. Worse, if the buyers were short-term traders enticed by various price/volume alert issuances, they will likely dump as quickly as possible if any weakness appears. This can have a very quick cascading effect.
On my one-year chart, for the third consecutive day we traded completely above the rising 10 and 20-day SMAs. Yesterday about 75% of our trading range was above the 50-day and today the range was completely above it. That cause the 50-day to make a rise. That makes the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs rising while the 200-day is still falling. Readings for the 10, 20, 50 and 200 are $0.6761, $0.6599, $0.7085 and $0.9027 respectively.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution, RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic. Each is in overbought territory. Improvement also occurred in momentum and ADX-related and the former is above neutral while the latter is approaching getting above neutral.
Today had improvement in every oscillator, including accumulation/distribution, which is a bit unusual. Everything but accumulation/distribution is above neutral and in overbought are RSI, MFi (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic. This configuration often puts folks on alert, feeling a correction is nigh, but things can stay overbought longer than one might expect. On this stock that would be a surprise to me though.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.5784 and $0.7542 ($0.5941 and $0.7181 yesterday), continued diverging with a falling lower limit and faster-rising upper limit, yielding a rising mid-point.
All in, the only possible negative is my (irrational?) concern with the large volume spike combined with elevated price and knowledge that DJ has been hitting the ATM. Well, there is more. The fast price rise should be attracting shorters and if the market doesn't like the results reporting I think shorters will pile on, along with many, I suspect, short-term traders rushing for the exit at the first sign of weakness. This may also be an irrational fear. The only evidence of short-term traders is the volume/price behavior and that could be just ATM/shorters. There's little recent evidence of heavy shorting though so if they are involved they may be doing covering buys into the reporting JIC. That would apply some upward pressure.
Having said all that, based purely on the technical stuff, I would have to remain bullish near-term. Adding in my concerns would make me no better than agnostic as I would be in "wait and see" mode. That's where I settle today - wait and see.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, as both weakened marginally. Short percentage is barely below my desired range and I don't read that as a negative. Buy percentage is still high but not in a range that makes me say it's got to come down. It is, however, well above our normal highs of low-to-mid 50% range. Regardless, these two percentages suggest some upside is still available.
The spread expanded to a range strongly suggestive of near-term movement being likely, even without the pre-market $0.85 high (peek at the table bottom). With the current trend the most likely move is upward.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements improved for the fourth consecutive day, going to 13 negatives and 11 positives from 14 and 10 respectively. Change since 05/09 is $0.1034, 15.74%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.6348%, 0.3385%,0.1182% and -0.0514%, -0.2146%, -0.2079%, -0.3689%, -0.6415%, -0.7567%, and -0.8905%.
All in, there's nothing here suggesting (yet!) that we should expect near-term weakness to appear.
Bill
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
