AI
Wednesday, June 14, 2017 1:34:23 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/09 2017 EOD
Yesterday I said { The one exception is we may be exiting, or getting ready to be exiting, short-term consolidation. I expect we'll move on to challenge the known $0.70/72 resistance and behavior there will probably the determinant. } We both exited short-term consolidation and challenged the $0.72 resistance. The behavior subsequent to that challenge was not such that I read strong negative sentiment into the rejection at that level. Then the conventional TA is still positive, but showing early weakening signs again, while my unconventional stuff had to be discounted, an unusual occurrence (explanation at the end).
That discounting of certain of my unconventional stuff resolved a conflict in a positive direction.
My near-term call is more positive movement is most likely near-term, but with some early signs that weakening may appear.
Today had a little change in the b/a behavior, expected as we approached the known $0.70/2 resistance, in that the early bids/asks had large sell quantity imbalance with offers at $0.69 and higher, although the imbalance was generally less at the higher offers.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 1.3K:700 $0.68/$0.70.
09:30-10:07 opened the day with a 125 sell for $0.6896 & 127 $0.6802. B/a just after open was 195:15K $0.6805/$0.69. Then came 9:33's b/a 1.8K:15K $0.6802/$0.69 (bids rising), 9:34's 300 $0.6812, 9:36's 500 $0.69, 9:37's b/a 1.9K:15K $0.6803/$0.69 (bids rising), 9:41's 695 $0.6887, 9:47's 15.5K $0.69, 9:48's b/a 1.6K:14K $0.6840/$0.69 (bids rising), 9:51's 1.5K $0.69, 9:54's b/a 1.2K:14.1K $0.6865/$0.69 (bids rising), 9:58's 300 $0.69, 10:00's 105 $0.69, 10:04's b/a 700:14K $0.6899/$0.69, and the period ended on 10:07's 24.7K $0.6900/1 (200).
10:08-10:32, after three no-trades minutes, began a rapid mixed-volume large rise from 10:11's 19.5K $0.70 and did 10:12's 700 $0.7006, 10:13's 4.7K $0.7006 (500)/01 (1.7K)/$0.69 (2.6K), 10:19's 100 $0.7010, 10:20's 2.3K $0.70, 10:21's b/a 200:6K $0.6910/$0.70, 10:22's 400 $0.7035/00/55/35, 10:24's 11.2K $0.7044/$0.6910 (10K blk)/$0.7043 (1K), 10:27's b/a 2.5K:200 $0.6910/$0.7050, 10:29's 7.3K $0.7000/50/49/35/00 ... 35/70/00/55/49/55/49/35/70, and ended the period on 10:32's 6.7K $0.7000/35/ ... 00/55/00/70/00/35.
10:33-10:53 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7000/70 after 10:34's 300 $0.6979/$0.70. B/a at 10:35 was 2.8K:5.5K $0.6912/$0.7070, 10:47 100:50 $0.6912/$0.70 (offers backed by {b]presented 5.4K $0.7070). The period ended on 10:53's 10.5K $0.7000/25
10:54-14:11 began extremely low/no-volume $0.69/$0.7040, with highs beginning to fall after 12:03, on 10:54's 16.5K $0.6923 (2K)/$0.7039/20/00 (1.2K)/40/00 (11.6K). B/a at 11:02 was 1K:1.3K $0.6912/$0.7040. Volume was interrupted by 11:14's 19K $0.6912/$0.7040 (200)/$0.6912/16 (2k)/10 (2.4K)/00 (10.1K incl 10K blk)/$0.700 (100)/40 (1K). B/a at 11:31 was 500:900 $0.6901/$0.7040. Volume was interrupted by 11:39-:40s's 16.1K. $0.70 (1.3K)/$0.6951/$0.7040/$0.6951/2 (6.5K)/1 (2K)/$0.7001/90 (1.7K)/$0.6991 (1.4K)/89/50/02/90 (1K). B/a at 11:48 was 900:1.7K $0.6992/$0.7050, 12:24 100:1.5K $0.69/$0.7050, 12:31 400:900 $0.6903/$0.70, 12:46 2.7K:875 $0.6904/$0.70, 13:01 600:874 $0.6905/$0.70, 13:16 2.8K:974 $0.6908/$0.70, 13:31 1.4K:600 $0.6916/$0.70. Volume was interrupted by 13:40's 5.6K $0.6999 (4.2K)/23 (900)/62/24. B/a at 13:46 was 600:600 $0.6951/$0.70 (bids rising), 14:01 2K:1.6K $0.6906/$0.70. The period ended on 14:11's 100 $0.6954.
14:12-15:49 during the initial nine no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:16 of 300:1.6K $0.6914/$0.70. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6916/45 (low dropped to $0.69 and high hit $0.71 quickly) after 14:21's 11K $0.6960/$0.70 (3.2K)/64/$0.7050 (1.9K)/$0.7100/20 (4.5K)/$0.6917 (900). B/a at 14:26 was 100:100 $0.6916/$0.71, 14:46 1050:50 $0.6900/70 (offers backed by presented 300 $0.71), 15:01 1.3K:200 $0.69/$0.71. Price and volume were interrupted by 15:12's 9.6K $0.7081 (2K)/$0.69 (1.2K)/$0.6860 (6.2K)/$0.6930. B/a at 15:16 was 500:400 $0.6860/$0.70, 15:31 2.2K:300 $0.6860/$0.70, 15:47 2.2K:300 $0.6860/$0.70. The period ended on 15:49's 400 $0.69.
15:50-16:00, after five no-trades minutes, began high/medium-volume EOD volatility, doing $0.69/$0.71, rising as high as $0.72 on 15:59's 21.3K $0.71 (400)/$0.69/$0.71/2/1 (12K incl. 10K blk)/0/$0.6924 (3.8K)/$0.71 (2.1K)/$0.6924 (900)/00 (900) and $0.69 was the official close because only an odd-lot 73 share $0.686 16:00 trade occurred and odd-lots are not allowed to be official OLHC.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K) totaling 104,600, 40.10% of day's volume, with a $0.6959 VWAP. For the day's volume the count seems reasonable. The percentage of day's volume is a bit high. The VWAP is below the day's $0.6968. This all makes me think some more astute investors, like institutionals (good MM customers, likely, that get serviced), were the takers of most of the larger trades. Could be shorters covering since the last report was showing almost 4MM shares shorted. As always, it could be MMs themselves covering their intra-day (or other short-term) short positions and some bullish retail.
As with yesterday I noted early large buy imbalances in the b/a quantities, but when b/a was down around $0.68/9 rather than yesterday's $0.65/7, and that imbalance disappeared when b/a was up at $0.69ish/$0.70ish+. That again raises the question of whether the behavior was price being supported and pushed higher, possibly to support $CPST ATM use, or was just normal short-term trader profit-taking or both.
Regardless, today's behavior was again accompanied by a rise in volume, suggesting the market has been turned to a more bullish sentiment.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
The low rebounded from yesterday's drop below $0.66 to $0.6802 and the high finally hit $0.72, and expected resistance ($0.70/2). Now will come the test whether there's enough bullishness to break through the resistance. So far everything is looking like it could keep going.
I hold, mostly, with yesterday's { ... range today I think there's a bit more left in the move up. Hitting $0.70/2 will be the most likely point or either pause or reversal prior to the quarterly report. }. Today's rising volume as we hit a high of $0.72 suggests more upside but the close was not able to sustain that level (selling into strength I think) and closed at $0.69. So the resistance has held on this second day of challenging the $0.70/2 resistance.
This makes the move above seem less likely near-term. The sellers will have to get exhausted first I think.
On my minimal chart the most significant thing is that the range was at and above the longer-term descending resistance (descending red line) and the close was above it. Today confirms yesterday's close above was a breakout and on rising volume we should just keep going. yesterday I had said we should have more upside left and I think that's still the case.
I had questioned yesterday whether this line was still in play. Based on blowing right through it in two days it either is not in play or the manipulation I've been saying was occurring is indeed occurring.
Trade range was almost completely at and above the rising fast EMA's $0.6820, which is above the rising slow EMA's $0.6614.
We are still pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band upper limit - for the fifth day now. Being now 100% convinced of the manipulation, I'm not concerned that it may end badly until I see evidence that the manipulation has ended. A guess would be after 10 consecutive days of closing >= $1 has occurred.
As with yesterday, { Today we have a well-formed volume-bar "cupping pattern" accompanying a rising price. This indicates there should be some more upside available. }
Also still a concern is yesterday's { ... we have to add the potential for a slowing at the $0.70/2 known resistance ... } Today's high was $0.72 and the close was $0.69. Everything looks like we'll move on by it though.
I also hold with yesterday's { ... well, today the volume is more supportive of that (bullish sentiment) even if manipulation has been occurring. }
On my one-year chart, for the fifth consecutive day we traded completely at and above (fourth day) the 10 and 20-day SMAs, both of which are rising. Today the 10-day crossed above the 20-day. The 50 and 200 are still falling.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution (unusual), RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R ((overbought), and full stochastic (further overbought). Weakening occurred in momentum and ADX-related was flat in aggregate. Only accumulation/distribution is below neutral, ADX-related is at low readings and all others are above neutral.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution (back to normal), Williams %R (exited overbought), full stochastic (still overbought, barely), Improvement occurred in RSI, MFI (just below overbought and untrusted by me), momentum (above neutral), and ADX-related.
Yesterday I said { Now with a couple oscillators in overbought condition it's time to keep a close eye open for any weakening as an early sign of the upward bias weakening. } Sure enough, a couple more oscillators moved from improving to weakening.
With the open and close almost flat (4/100ths penny difference) a "doji" candlestick formed, indicating indecision. But it's on an up day with rising volume, so the trend is still positive. Just keep alert for more signs of weakening.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6016 and $0.6995 ($0.6016 and $0.6903 yesterday), continued diverging with a falling lower limit and faster-rising upper limit, yielding a rising mid-point.
All in, for the third consecutive day I have to conclude with { ... I have to read all this as positive moves more likely than negative here. "Market management", "ATM", and "TFH" regardless, the market can rise and folks will respond to the conventional TA and the approach of quarterly reporting. } Today I add only the concern of the number of oscillators weakening increased, suggesting we might really be running out of steam, while the volume increase suggests the opposite. Alertness is warranted I think.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, which is good. Not so good is the short percentage is further below my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage dropped into the area that says near-term weakening is likely.
The spread shrank a bit but is still in a range suggesting movement is likely.
The VWAP improved again, making it 5 improvements in the last 7 days.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements improved for the second consecutive day, going to 15 negatives and 9 positives from 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 05/05 is $0.0165, 2.42%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1182% and -0.0514%, -0.2146%, -0.2079%, -0.3689%, -0.6415%, -0.7567%, -0.8905%, -0.7494%, and -0.6808%. This is quite a positive trend now.
All in, have to do the unusual and discount my metrics here. The reason is the belief in the manipulation suggested, and seemingly confirmed, over lo these many days as price continues to escalate without overt cause other than the known approach of results reporting and the (apparent?) presence of Cowan & Co. pushing price up so the ATM can be used.
OK. With reasoning out of the way, we see a short percentage which would normally suggest lessening of selling pressure and/or short-term traders hanging on to any long positions a few days more and the shares settled, meaning no short flag when they get sold. However another explanation resides in Cowan & Co. If the shares they are selling had been transferred into their account prior to being sold and settled we could see a combined low short and buy percentage, what we have today. Which leads to ...
Discounting the buy percentage, which suggests near-term downside as most likely. I discount that because of the belief in the manipulation occurring, and likely to continue near-term. When that activity is being successful, as has been the case IMO, the chicken tracks these metrics represent are false tracks and can't be relied upon in the normal way.
The metrics which I think still reliable are the spread and the VWAP movements, and sometimes the larger block trades detailed in the intra-day breakdown.
The spread suggests near-term movement is likely, the larger trades are taking a large part of the day's volume and the VWAP has established an upward, near-relentless, trend.
So, with one modification, I stick with yesterday's { Nothing changes except the possibility of exiting short-term consolidation, to the upside, now appears. But know resistance is just above at $0.70/2. I suspect we'll test it before reversing. } The modification is it looks today as if we have exited the short-term consolidation, we made our first test of $0.72 and got rejected and with rising volume I suspect that $0.72 resistance will be broached, and confirmed in relatively short order.
Bill
Yesterday I said { The one exception is we may be exiting, or getting ready to be exiting, short-term consolidation. I expect we'll move on to challenge the known $0.70/72 resistance and behavior there will probably the determinant. } We both exited short-term consolidation and challenged the $0.72 resistance. The behavior subsequent to that challenge was not such that I read strong negative sentiment into the rejection at that level. Then the conventional TA is still positive, but showing early weakening signs again, while my unconventional stuff had to be discounted, an unusual occurrence (explanation at the end).
That discounting of certain of my unconventional stuff resolved a conflict in a positive direction.
My near-term call is more positive movement is most likely near-term, but with some early signs that weakening may appear.
Today had a little change in the b/a behavior, expected as we approached the known $0.70/2 resistance, in that the early bids/asks had large sell quantity imbalance with offers at $0.69 and higher, although the imbalance was generally less at the higher offers.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 1.3K:700 $0.68/$0.70.
09:30-10:07 opened the day with a 125 sell for $0.6896 & 127 $0.6802. B/a just after open was 195:15K $0.6805/$0.69. Then came 9:33's b/a 1.8K:15K $0.6802/$0.69 (bids rising), 9:34's 300 $0.6812, 9:36's 500 $0.69, 9:37's b/a 1.9K:15K $0.6803/$0.69 (bids rising), 9:41's 695 $0.6887, 9:47's 15.5K $0.69, 9:48's b/a 1.6K:14K $0.6840/$0.69 (bids rising), 9:51's 1.5K $0.69, 9:54's b/a 1.2K:14.1K $0.6865/$0.69 (bids rising), 9:58's 300 $0.69, 10:00's 105 $0.69, 10:04's b/a 700:14K $0.6899/$0.69, and the period ended on 10:07's 24.7K $0.6900/1 (200).
10:08-10:32, after three no-trades minutes, began a rapid mixed-volume large rise from 10:11's 19.5K $0.70 and did 10:12's 700 $0.7006, 10:13's 4.7K $0.7006 (500)/01 (1.7K)/$0.69 (2.6K), 10:19's 100 $0.7010, 10:20's 2.3K $0.70, 10:21's b/a 200:6K $0.6910/$0.70, 10:22's 400 $0.7035/00/55/35, 10:24's 11.2K $0.7044/$0.6910 (10K blk)/$0.7043 (1K), 10:27's b/a 2.5K:200 $0.6910/$0.7050, 10:29's 7.3K $0.7000/50/49/35/00 ... 35/70/00/55/49/55/49/35/70, and ended the period on 10:32's 6.7K $0.7000/35/ ... 00/55/00/70/00/35.
10:33-10:53 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7000/70 after 10:34's 300 $0.6979/$0.70. B/a at 10:35 was 2.8K:5.5K $0.6912/$0.7070, 10:47 100:50 $0.6912/$0.70 (offers backed by {b]presented 5.4K $0.7070). The period ended on 10:53's 10.5K $0.7000/25
10:54-14:11 began extremely low/no-volume $0.69/$0.7040, with highs beginning to fall after 12:03, on 10:54's 16.5K $0.6923 (2K)/$0.7039/20/00 (1.2K)/40/00 (11.6K). B/a at 11:02 was 1K:1.3K $0.6912/$0.7040. Volume was interrupted by 11:14's 19K $0.6912/$0.7040 (200)/$0.6912/16 (2k)/10 (2.4K)/00 (10.1K incl 10K blk)/$0.700 (100)/40 (1K). B/a at 11:31 was 500:900 $0.6901/$0.7040. Volume was interrupted by 11:39-:40s's 16.1K. $0.70 (1.3K)/$0.6951/$0.7040/$0.6951/2 (6.5K)/1 (2K)/$0.7001/90 (1.7K)/$0.6991 (1.4K)/89/50/02/90 (1K). B/a at 11:48 was 900:1.7K $0.6992/$0.7050, 12:24 100:1.5K $0.69/$0.7050, 12:31 400:900 $0.6903/$0.70, 12:46 2.7K:875 $0.6904/$0.70, 13:01 600:874 $0.6905/$0.70, 13:16 2.8K:974 $0.6908/$0.70, 13:31 1.4K:600 $0.6916/$0.70. Volume was interrupted by 13:40's 5.6K $0.6999 (4.2K)/23 (900)/62/24. B/a at 13:46 was 600:600 $0.6951/$0.70 (bids rising), 14:01 2K:1.6K $0.6906/$0.70. The period ended on 14:11's 100 $0.6954.
14:12-15:49 during the initial nine no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:16 of 300:1.6K $0.6914/$0.70. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6916/45 (low dropped to $0.69 and high hit $0.71 quickly) after 14:21's 11K $0.6960/$0.70 (3.2K)/64/$0.7050 (1.9K)/$0.7100/20 (4.5K)/$0.6917 (900). B/a at 14:26 was 100:100 $0.6916/$0.71, 14:46 1050:50 $0.6900/70 (offers backed by presented 300 $0.71), 15:01 1.3K:200 $0.69/$0.71. Price and volume were interrupted by 15:12's 9.6K $0.7081 (2K)/$0.69 (1.2K)/$0.6860 (6.2K)/$0.6930. B/a at 15:16 was 500:400 $0.6860/$0.70, 15:31 2.2K:300 $0.6860/$0.70, 15:47 2.2K:300 $0.6860/$0.70. The period ended on 15:49's 400 $0.69.
15:50-16:00, after five no-trades minutes, began high/medium-volume EOD volatility, doing $0.69/$0.71, rising as high as $0.72 on 15:59's 21.3K $0.71 (400)/$0.69/$0.71/2/1 (12K incl. 10K blk)/0/$0.6924 (3.8K)/$0.71 (2.1K)/$0.6924 (900)/00 (900) and $0.69 was the official close because only an odd-lot 73 share $0.686 16:00 trade occurred and odd-lots are not allowed to be official OLHC.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K) totaling 104,600, 40.10% of day's volume, with a $0.6959 VWAP. For the day's volume the count seems reasonable. The percentage of day's volume is a bit high. The VWAP is below the day's $0.6968. This all makes me think some more astute investors, like institutionals (good MM customers, likely, that get serviced), were the takers of most of the larger trades. Could be shorters covering since the last report was showing almost 4MM shares shorted. As always, it could be MMs themselves covering their intra-day (or other short-term) short positions and some bullish retail.
The correlation between movements of buy percentage and VWAP has weakened. This is looking like "sell into strength" behavior. I do notice that buy percentage is migrating towards the low range which was more common before this push up began. Normally I would guess this should continue as we are, using VWAP and the highs, now at the expected $0.70/2 resistance. A cursory assessment would be that selling into strength is likely to continue and we will have difficulty continuing to move higher. But that ignores the formerly common behavior of running up into earnings, which seems to be occurring again.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:07 43801 $0.6802 $0.6901 $30,217.87 $0.6899 16.79% 54.65% Incl 10:07 $0.6900 5,374 8,500 8,626
10:32 52714 $0.6900 $0.7070 $36,826.19 $0.6986 20.21% 49.92% Incl 10:11 $0.7000 4,700 10,000
10:24 $0.6910 10,000
10:53 14381 $0.6979 $0.7070 $10,088.97 $0.7015 5.51% 46.79% Incl 10:53 $0.7000 9,000
14:11 84612 $0.6900 $0.7050 $58,888.56 $0.6960 32.44% 39.70% Incl 10:54 $0.7000 11,500 11:14 $0.6900 10,000
11:39 $0.6952 6,500 13:40 $0.6999 4,200
15:49 27607 $0.6860 $0.7120 $19,254.23 $0.6974 10.58% 40.35% Incl 15:12 $0.6860 6,200
16:00 35861 $0.6860 $0.7200 $25,174.21 $0.7020 13.75% 38.56% Incl 15:59 $0.7100 10,000
As with yesterday I noted early large buy imbalances in the b/a quantities, but when b/a was down around $0.68/9 rather than yesterday's $0.65/7, and that imbalance disappeared when b/a was up at $0.69ish/$0.70ish+. That again raises the question of whether the behavior was price being supported and pushed higher, possibly to support $CPST ATM use, or was just normal short-term trader profit-taking or both.
Regardless, today's behavior was again accompanied by a rise in volume, suggesting the market has been turned to a more bullish sentiment.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
The bullish behavior trend just keeps on trucking here and on volume rising for the second consecutive day and three of the last five (one of which was a Friday with a lower volume, quite common).__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 2.93% 4.63% 4.35% 0.83% 36.36%
Prior 1.52% -1.50% 0.73% 2.15% 60.08%
The low rebounded from yesterday's drop below $0.66 to $0.6802 and the high finally hit $0.72, and expected resistance ($0.70/2). Now will come the test whether there's enough bullishness to break through the resistance. So far everything is looking like it could keep going.
I hold, mostly, with yesterday's { ... range today I think there's a bit more left in the move up. Hitting $0.70/2 will be the most likely point or either pause or reversal prior to the quarterly report. }. Today's rising volume as we hit a high of $0.72 suggests more upside but the close was not able to sustain that level (selling into strength I think) and closed at $0.69. So the resistance has held on this second day of challenging the $0.70/2 resistance.
This makes the move above seem less likely near-term. The sellers will have to get exhausted first I think.
On my minimal chart the most significant thing is that the range was at and above the longer-term descending resistance (descending red line) and the close was above it. Today confirms yesterday's close above was a breakout and on rising volume we should just keep going. yesterday I had said we should have more upside left and I think that's still the case.
I had questioned yesterday whether this line was still in play. Based on blowing right through it in two days it either is not in play or the manipulation I've been saying was occurring is indeed occurring.
Trade range was almost completely at and above the rising fast EMA's $0.6820, which is above the rising slow EMA's $0.6614.
We are still pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band upper limit - for the fifth day now. Being now 100% convinced of the manipulation, I'm not concerned that it may end badly until I see evidence that the manipulation has ended. A guess would be after 10 consecutive days of closing >= $1 has occurred.
As with yesterday, { Today we have a well-formed volume-bar "cupping pattern" accompanying a rising price. This indicates there should be some more upside available. }
Also still a concern is yesterday's { ... we have to add the potential for a slowing at the $0.70/2 known resistance ... } Today's high was $0.72 and the close was $0.69. Everything looks like we'll move on by it though.
I also hold with yesterday's { ... well, today the volume is more supportive of that (bullish sentiment) even if manipulation has been occurring. }
On my one-year chart, for the fifth consecutive day we traded completely at and above (fourth day) the 10 and 20-day SMAs, both of which are rising. Today the 10-day crossed above the 20-day. The 50 and 200 are still falling.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution (unusual), RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R ((overbought), and full stochastic (further overbought). Weakening occurred in momentum and ADX-related was flat in aggregate. Only accumulation/distribution is below neutral, ADX-related is at low readings and all others are above neutral.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution (back to normal), Williams %R (exited overbought), full stochastic (still overbought, barely), Improvement occurred in RSI, MFI (just below overbought and untrusted by me), momentum (above neutral), and ADX-related.
Yesterday I said { Now with a couple oscillators in overbought condition it's time to keep a close eye open for any weakening as an early sign of the upward bias weakening. } Sure enough, a couple more oscillators moved from improving to weakening.
With the open and close almost flat (4/100ths penny difference) a "doji" candlestick formed, indicating indecision. But it's on an up day with rising volume, so the trend is still positive. Just keep alert for more signs of weakening.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6016 and $0.6995 ($0.6016 and $0.6903 yesterday), continued diverging with a falling lower limit and faster-rising upper limit, yielding a rising mid-point.
All in, for the third consecutive day I have to conclude with { ... I have to read all this as positive moves more likely than negative here. "Market management", "ATM", and "TFH" regardless, the market can rise and folks will respond to the conventional TA and the approach of quarterly reporting. } Today I add only the concern of the number of oscillators weakening increased, suggesting we might really be running out of steam, while the volume increase suggests the opposite. Alertness is warranted I think.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, which is good. Not so good is the short percentage is further below my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage dropped into the area that says near-term weakening is likely.
The spread shrank a bit but is still in a range suggesting movement is likely.
The VWAP improved again, making it 5 improvements in the last 7 days.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements improved for the second consecutive day, going to 15 negatives and 9 positives from 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 05/05 is $0.0165, 2.42%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1182% and -0.0514%, -0.2146%, -0.2079%, -0.3689%, -0.6415%, -0.7567%, -0.8905%, -0.7494%, and -0.6808%. This is quite a positive trend now.
All in, have to do the unusual and discount my metrics here. The reason is the belief in the manipulation suggested, and seemingly confirmed, over lo these many days as price continues to escalate without overt cause other than the known approach of results reporting and the (apparent?) presence of Cowan & Co. pushing price up so the ATM can be used.
OK. With reasoning out of the way, we see a short percentage which would normally suggest lessening of selling pressure and/or short-term traders hanging on to any long positions a few days more and the shares settled, meaning no short flag when they get sold. However another explanation resides in Cowan & Co. If the shares they are selling had been transferred into their account prior to being sold and settled we could see a combined low short and buy percentage, what we have today. Which leads to ...
Discounting the buy percentage, which suggests near-term downside as most likely. I discount that because of the belief in the manipulation occurring, and likely to continue near-term. When that activity is being successful, as has been the case IMO, the chicken tracks these metrics represent are false tracks and can't be relied upon in the normal way.
The metrics which I think still reliable are the spread and the VWAP movements, and sometimes the larger block trades detailed in the intra-day breakdown.
The spread suggests near-term movement is likely, the larger trades are taking a large part of the day's volume and the VWAP has established an upward, near-relentless, trend.
So, with one modification, I stick with yesterday's { Nothing changes except the possibility of exiting short-term consolidation, to the upside, now appears. But know resistance is just above at $0.70/2. I suspect we'll test it before reversing. } The modification is it looks today as if we have exited the short-term consolidation, we made our first test of $0.72 and got rejected and with rising volume I suspect that $0.72 resistance will be broached, and confirmed in relatively short order.
Bill
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