RNO - I am buying this pull back.
Cl001 has been a big fan of RNO and he got me interested. I went to Yahoo and started reading the board over there. A poster with the handle "Firecracker" makes some points that I am in agreement with. He was also a big voice on EZM when it fell to $1.85 from $3.25.
Here are some good points taken from "Firecracker"
".30 earnings in third quarter? 2-Sep-06 07:38 am
Some people might think I am using pie in the sky numbers to arrive at my estimate of third quarter earnings. Actually, I am trying to stay conservative with my estimate. I am figuring that RNO will sell 4M pounds of nickel in the third quarter at $12 and that they will make another $12M from repricing the nickel that was shipped in the second quarter for a total of $60M in nickel revenues. RNO produced 3.6M pounds of nickel in the second quarter, but improvements in the TPH at the plant from 185 to 210 should make nickel production higher in the third quarter. I am using $12 as an average price of nickel for the quarter. The price has averaged about $12.50 so far for the quarter. If nickel stays at $15 for September the average price for the quarter will be about $13. RNO stated that there were 3.1M pounds of nickel at the end of the second quarter that needed to be repriced in the third quarter. These 3.1M pounds were originally priced at $7.71. Gold revenues are hard to figure. I am going with $17M for the third quarter, the same as the second quarter. Nalunaq revenues went from $13.1M in the first quarter to $3.3M in the second quarter. RNO said they didn't process any Nalunaq ore in the second quarter, but they expect to process two shipments in the third quarter so Nalunaq revenues may be higher in the third quarter. The average gold price is higher in the third quarter. Expenses were $47M in the second quarter. $21M of that was hedging losses. There should be no hedging loss in the third quarter if copper remains around $3.40. I am estimating expenses of $29M for the third quarter. My estimate is for $77M in revenues and $29M in expenses and a profit of $48M or .30 per share for the third quarter."
AI
