Monday, June 05, 2017 9:27:51 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/02 2017 EOD
Everything has conspired to mute my inherent bearish tendencies today. Both conventional and my unconventional TA suggest near-term improvement as the most likely scenario.
Price opened low and went high, then quickly (by 9:38) dropped back to the low opening price and dropped below that by 10:14. A long flattish period, mostly at and above the opening low, ensued until time for the west coasties to arrive, about 12:00, at the corral. Can you guess what came next? Yes, it was an extremely low/no-volume walk up to the day's high and then beyond to close at $0.65, just 48/100ths of a penny off the high.
Before I took a look at this intra-day behavior I was believing we likely had a real bull run going because of the indications a couple day ago that we might have bottomed and and then yesterday ad today showing bullish movements. After seeing the same old same old I end up back in the thinking of a manipulated move.
That doesn't mean it can't continue higher but it does leave me thinking that profit-taking by short-term traders will quickly quash and major move higher. <*sigh*>
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:58 opened the day with a 8,015 sell for $0.6150 & $0.62 x 147, x 145, $0.6450 x 1K. B/a just after open was 1.2K:4K $0.6150/$0.6450. Then came 9:31's 89 $0.645, 9:38's 3K $0.6393, 9:39's 8.4K $0.6203 (4.1K)/$0.6151 (2K)/54 (300)/53 (1.9K), 9:40's 100 $0.6288, 9:41's 1.3K $0.6151, 9:42's 100 $0.6151, 9:43's 16K $0.62 (15K incl 10K blk)/$0.6151 (1K), 9:53's 100 $0.6151, 9:55's b/a 2.4K:2.2K $0.6150/$0.64, 9:56's 215 $0.6151/97, 9:57's 200 $0.6151, and the period ended on 9:58's 10K $0.6151 (4.7K)/$0.62 (5.3K).
09:59-11:57, after one no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6151/$0.62 on 10:00's 200 $0.6151. B/a at 10:04 was 1.2K:1.9K $0.6150/$0.62. Volume was interrupted by 10:12's 3K $0.6183 (1.9K)/50. Price was interrupted by 10:14's 670 $0.6120 (100)/51 (200)/95 (200). B/a at 10:19 was 1.1K:2.3K $0.6150/$0.62. Volume was interrupted by 10:31's 30K $0.6199 (21.4K incl 20K blk)/51 (8.6K). B/a at 10:32 was 9.9K:2.3K $0.6120/$0.62. Volume was interrupted by 10:32-:33's 5.5K $0.6151. B/a at 10:39 was 200:500 $0.6150/99, 10:48 2K:500 $0.6121/99. After 10:52's 1K $0.6198 and 5 no-trades minutes, 10:53 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6122/51 on 10:58's 250 $0.6124 and began immediately climbing back up. B/a at 11:02 was 1.4K:2.1K $0.6121/31. By 11:11 range was back to $0.6151/$0.62. B/a at 11:11 was 100:600 $0.6150/99. Volume was interrupted by 11:32's 7.5K $0.6151. B/a at 11:38 was 30:4K $0.6121/50 (bids backed by presented 10.3K $0.6120, 11:48 2.1K:100 $0.6150/99. The period ended on 11:57's 500 $0.6151.
11:58-12:48, during the initial four no-trades minutes had b/a at 12:02 of 600:100 $0.6155/99. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6252/$0.63 on 12:02's 10.5K $0.6190 (2.1K)/99 (100)/$0.62 (8.1K)/$0.63 (100)/$0.6269 (100). B/a at 12:10 was 3.8K:1.8K $0.6150/$0.63, 12:33 6:1.2K $0.62/3 (bids backed by presented 2.2K $0.6151), 12:47 6:1.2K $0.62/3 (bids backed by presented 2.2K $0.6151). The period ended on 12:48's 700 $0.63.
12:49-14:18, after seven no-trades minutes, began a well executed, extremely low/no-volume walk up, from $0.6300/91, on 12:56's 1.4K $0.6391 (900)/00 (535). B/a at 13:02 was 100:1.7K $0.6201/$0.6391. Volume was interrupted by 13:05-:14's 42.6K $0.6310 (12K)/81 (4K)/24/84 (4K)/14 (2.5K)/91 (1.5K)/90 (8.2K)/87 (4K)/76/89 (4K)/16.
B/a at 13:17 was 100:1.7K $0.6240/$0.6391, 13:32 3.8K:1.1K $0.6321/91. High volume came again with 13:35-:41's 23.1K $0.6391 (3.6K)/$0.6450 (2.1K)/59 (4K)/60 (6K)/24 (4K)/00 (2.5K)/$0.65 (600). That moved range up to $0.6460/$0.65. B/a at 14:44 was 3.1K:1.5K $0.6411/$0.65, 12:48 100:1.5K $0.6439/$0.65. 14:03's 2.5K hit $0.65-$0.6548. B/a at 14:04 was 123:12K $0.6499/$0.66, 14:17 100:236 $0.63/5. The period ended on 14:18's 100 $0.6499.
14:19-14:30, after two no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume drop from $0.64/5 on 14:21's 6K $0.6427. The period ended on 14:30's 1K $0.6308.
14:31-15:42 during the initial nineteen no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:32 of 2.4K:1K $0.6301/$0.64 and 14:47 4.7K:1K $0.6301/$0.64. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6345/$0.64 on 14:50's 100 $0.64. B/a at 15:02 was 4.9K:800 $0.6301/$0.64, 15:17 4.9K:700 $0.6301/$0.640, 15:34 4.7K:700 $0.6301/$0.64. The period ended on 15:42's 700 $0.64.
15:43-15:53 during the initial eleven no-trades minutes had b/a at 15:44 of 1.4K:1.3K $0.6401/$0.65. Price just stepped up on one single trade and ended the period on 15:53's 936 $0.6402.
15:54-16:00, after four no-trades minutes, did the final extremely low-volume push up to force a higher close on 15:58's 600 $0.6500/30/00 and ended the period and day on 16:00's 112 $0.65.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 21 larger trades (>=5K & 13 4K+) totaling 123,415, 51.76% of day's volume, with a $0.6259 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 20 larger trades totaling 115,400, 48.40% of day's volume, with a $0.6267 VWAP. For the day's volume the count seems high but looking at the 4K blocks I think it's because the MMs had to do a lot of partial fills to satisfy some larger orders. The percentage of day's volume is very high and the VWAPs are both below the day's $0.6278. All this combined suggests to me that we had some (likely?) non-retail investors taking these shares. It looks even more likely when the buy percentage (see below) is included in consideration.
It looks like that may have been a good assessment as today had rising buy percentages well correlated with rising VWAPs and an up day with rising volume! What's not to like? Are we suspecting the old-timey run up into earnings? Yes. Will it last? No one knows. We have short-term traders around and too much of a good thing may be too much for them to resist taking another good thing - profits.
Regardless, we now have a couple days of more-positive behavior since the early indications of possible bottoming and, hopefully, a reversal.
The only criticism I could level may be more due to the cynicism instilled by DJ & crew into the market and myself than due to the behavior of the market today. Intra-day followed one its more common behavioral patterns, described above, and that left me in my usual frame of mind.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart the negatives are the intra-day low continues pounding $0.61 (actually $0.6120 but it's not worth quibbling about that 20/100ths of a penny I think) and we had a lower high. The rate of volume increase is less than yesterday. Price is still "pushing" the experimental 13-period Bollinger band lower limit. The intra-day behavior was suspicious, as described above.
The good items include the close was well above the rising fast EMA's $0.6349 (was $0.6207) and the slow EMA's $0.6443 readings. The close was above the open. Price again made a nice intra-day penetration back above the short-term descending channel bottom line, ~$0.622 and had a substantial portion of the day's time and volume above that range (see the VWAP posted above or below), thanks to the apparent efforts of the west coasties.
The fast and slow EMAs stopped their decline and both are rising now. The fast remains below the slow, but now marginally. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0094 (was $0.0127). Trade range penetrated both EMAs.
The low held flat at $0.61 for the fourth day.
All this was again on rising (for the second day) volume. The volume bars continued making the desired "cupping" pattern.
On my one-year chart, for the fourteenth consecutive day we did not trade completely below all SMAs, all of which are still falling and all in order: 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Our high penetrated, for the fourteenth consecutive day, the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6357 and above the 20-day SMA's for the second consecutive day. Today closed above the 10-day SMA for the first time since 5/26.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in full stochastic and accumulation/distribution. Improvement occurred in RSI (a bit above oversold line), MFI (further above oversold and untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (still oversold but above the lower bound), and ADX-related. Everything was still well below neutral but for momentum which was just below neutral at 0.9538.
Today had weakening in ADX-related and improvement in every other oscillator. RSI is at neutral and momentum is slightly above neutral. Below neutral were MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic (out of oversold).
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6095 and $0.6700 ($0.6095 and $0.6700 yesterday), both stopped falling and went flat, giving a static mid-point.
All in, only the intra-day behavior described above puts me negative. The old "don't fight the tape" adage makes me go near-term positive as most likely though.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions and considering yesterday's readings I'm going to call this movement good for today because short percentage moved down nearer my desired range (needs re-check) while buy percentage moved into the range that strongly suggests continued upside is likely.
The spread contracted a bit, which I think is good - it was too wide - but is still wide enough to suggest movement as most likely, in this case it should be upward.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held steady for the third day at an abysmal 19 negatives and 5 positives. Change since 04/28 is -$0.1069, -14.54%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.6415%, -0.7567%, -0.8905%, -0.7494%, -0.6808%, -0.6688%, -0.7140%, -0.8520%, -0.8128%, and -0.9712%.
All in, a very unusual occurrence today. I see nothing here to give me a negative feeling and a lot that suggests near-term positive movement is most likely.
Bill
Everything has conspired to mute my inherent bearish tendencies today. Both conventional and my unconventional TA suggest near-term improvement as the most likely scenario.
Price opened low and went high, then quickly (by 9:38) dropped back to the low opening price and dropped below that by 10:14. A long flattish period, mostly at and above the opening low, ensued until time for the west coasties to arrive, about 12:00, at the corral. Can you guess what came next? Yes, it was an extremely low/no-volume walk up to the day's high and then beyond to close at $0.65, just 48/100ths of a penny off the high.
Before I took a look at this intra-day behavior I was believing we likely had a real bull run going because of the indications a couple day ago that we might have bottomed and and then yesterday ad today showing bullish movements. After seeing the same old same old I end up back in the thinking of a manipulated move.
That doesn't mean it can't continue higher but it does leave me thinking that profit-taking by short-term traders will quickly quash and major move higher. <*sigh*>
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:58 opened the day with a 8,015 sell for $0.6150 & $0.62 x 147, x 145, $0.6450 x 1K. B/a just after open was 1.2K:4K $0.6150/$0.6450. Then came 9:31's 89 $0.645, 9:38's 3K $0.6393, 9:39's 8.4K $0.6203 (4.1K)/$0.6151 (2K)/54 (300)/53 (1.9K), 9:40's 100 $0.6288, 9:41's 1.3K $0.6151, 9:42's 100 $0.6151, 9:43's 16K $0.62 (15K incl 10K blk)/$0.6151 (1K), 9:53's 100 $0.6151, 9:55's b/a 2.4K:2.2K $0.6150/$0.64, 9:56's 215 $0.6151/97, 9:57's 200 $0.6151, and the period ended on 9:58's 10K $0.6151 (4.7K)/$0.62 (5.3K).
09:59-11:57, after one no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6151/$0.62 on 10:00's 200 $0.6151. B/a at 10:04 was 1.2K:1.9K $0.6150/$0.62. Volume was interrupted by 10:12's 3K $0.6183 (1.9K)/50. Price was interrupted by 10:14's 670 $0.6120 (100)/51 (200)/95 (200). B/a at 10:19 was 1.1K:2.3K $0.6150/$0.62. Volume was interrupted by 10:31's 30K $0.6199 (21.4K incl 20K blk)/51 (8.6K). B/a at 10:32 was 9.9K:2.3K $0.6120/$0.62. Volume was interrupted by 10:32-:33's 5.5K $0.6151. B/a at 10:39 was 200:500 $0.6150/99, 10:48 2K:500 $0.6121/99. After 10:52's 1K $0.6198 and 5 no-trades minutes, 10:53 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6122/51 on 10:58's 250 $0.6124 and began immediately climbing back up. B/a at 11:02 was 1.4K:2.1K $0.6121/31. By 11:11 range was back to $0.6151/$0.62. B/a at 11:11 was 100:600 $0.6150/99. Volume was interrupted by 11:32's 7.5K $0.6151. B/a at 11:38 was 30:4K $0.6121/50 (bids backed by presented 10.3K $0.6120, 11:48 2.1K:100 $0.6150/99. The period ended on 11:57's 500 $0.6151.
11:58-12:48, during the initial four no-trades minutes had b/a at 12:02 of 600:100 $0.6155/99. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6252/$0.63 on 12:02's 10.5K $0.6190 (2.1K)/99 (100)/$0.62 (8.1K)/$0.63 (100)/$0.6269 (100). B/a at 12:10 was 3.8K:1.8K $0.6150/$0.63, 12:33 6:1.2K $0.62/3 (bids backed by presented 2.2K $0.6151), 12:47 6:1.2K $0.62/3 (bids backed by presented 2.2K $0.6151). The period ended on 12:48's 700 $0.63.
12:49-14:18, after seven no-trades minutes, began a well executed, extremely low/no-volume walk up, from $0.6300/91, on 12:56's 1.4K $0.6391 (900)/00 (535). B/a at 13:02 was 100:1.7K $0.6201/$0.6391. Volume was interrupted by 13:05-:14's 42.6K $0.6310 (12K)/81 (4K)/24/84 (4K)/14 (2.5K)/91 (1.5K)/90 (8.2K)/87 (4K)/76/89 (4K)/16.
B/a at 13:17 was 100:1.7K $0.6240/$0.6391, 13:32 3.8K:1.1K $0.6321/91. High volume came again with 13:35-:41's 23.1K $0.6391 (3.6K)/$0.6450 (2.1K)/59 (4K)/60 (6K)/24 (4K)/00 (2.5K)/$0.65 (600). That moved range up to $0.6460/$0.65. B/a at 14:44 was 3.1K:1.5K $0.6411/$0.65, 12:48 100:1.5K $0.6439/$0.65. 14:03's 2.5K hit $0.65-$0.6548. B/a at 14:04 was 123:12K $0.6499/$0.66, 14:17 100:236 $0.63/5. The period ended on 14:18's 100 $0.6499.
14:19-14:30, after two no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume drop from $0.64/5 on 14:21's 6K $0.6427. The period ended on 14:30's 1K $0.6308.
14:31-15:42 during the initial nineteen no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:32 of 2.4K:1K $0.6301/$0.64 and 14:47 4.7K:1K $0.6301/$0.64. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6345/$0.64 on 14:50's 100 $0.64. B/a at 15:02 was 4.9K:800 $0.6301/$0.64, 15:17 4.9K:700 $0.6301/$0.640, 15:34 4.7K:700 $0.6301/$0.64. The period ended on 15:42's 700 $0.64.
15:43-15:53 during the initial eleven no-trades minutes had b/a at 15:44 of 1.4K:1.3K $0.6401/$0.65. Price just stepped up on one single trade and ended the period on 15:53's 936 $0.6402.
15:54-16:00, after four no-trades minutes, did the final extremely low-volume push up to force a higher close on 15:58's 600 $0.6500/30/00 and ended the period and day on 16:00's 112 $0.65.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 21 larger trades (>=5K & 13 4K+) totaling 123,415, 51.76% of day's volume, with a $0.6259 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 20 larger trades totaling 115,400, 48.40% of day's volume, with a $0.6267 VWAP. For the day's volume the count seems high but looking at the 4K blocks I think it's because the MMs had to do a lot of partial fills to satisfy some larger orders. The percentage of day's volume is very high and the VWAPs are both below the day's $0.6278. All this combined suggests to me that we had some (likely?) non-retail investors taking these shares. It looks even more likely when the buy percentage (see below) is included in consideration.
Yesterday I said { ... I would normally think suggests near-term weakness as most likely but that's offset, to some degree, buy the larger trades behavior ... a good percentage of days volume occurred at the highest VWAPs, a possible sign of bullishness when combined with the other items. Yes, the early price was likely manipulated higher, as is common, but the buy was strong there and the drop-off less severe than seen recently. }Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:58 48822 $0.6150 $0.6450 $30,256.95 $0.6197 20.48% 21.39% Incl 09:30 $0.6150 8,015
09:43 $0.6200 4,000 10,000
09:58 $0.6151 4,700 $0.6200 5,300
11:57 72597 $0.6120 $0.6199 $44,777.34 $0.6168 30.45% 35.52% Incl 10:31 $0.6151 8,600 $0.6199 20,000
11:32 $0.6151 7,000 11:44 $0.6150 4,000
12:48 14951 $0.6190 $0.6300 $9,312.58 $0.6229 6.27% 40.86% Incl 12:02 $0.6200 5,800
14:18 82760 $0.6300 $0.6548 $53,011.49 $0.6405 34.71% 58.79% Incl 13:05 $0.6310 4,000 13:06 4,000
13:08 $0.6381 4,000 13:09 $0.6384 4,000
13:11 4,000 $0.6387 13:13 $0.6389
13:14 4,000 $0.6390 13:36 $0.6459
13:37 4,000 $0.6460 13:39 $0.6424
14:30 11100 $0.6308 $0.6500 $7,112.00 $0.6407 4.66% 60.34% Incl 14:21 $0.6427 6,000
15:42 4195 $0.6345 $0.6400 $2,682.74 $0.6395 1.76% 60.81%
16:00 1648 $0.6402 $0.6530 $1,062.63 $0.6448 0.69% 60.62%
It looks like that may have been a good assessment as today had rising buy percentages well correlated with rising VWAPs and an up day with rising volume! What's not to like? Are we suspecting the old-timey run up into earnings? Yes. Will it last? No one knows. We have short-term traders around and too much of a good thing may be too much for them to resist taking another good thing - profits.
Regardless, we now have a couple days of more-positive behavior since the early indications of possible bottoming and, hopefully, a reversal.
The only criticism I could level may be more due to the cynicism instilled by DJ & crew into the market and myself than due to the behavior of the market today. Intra-day followed one its more common behavioral patterns, described above, and that left me in my usual frame of mind.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
We have a third day of generally improved movements in these metrics. It sure looks like we did complete a bottom and even began a reversal, fitting with yesterday's { ... could make a leg up, at least within the minimal chart's descending channel (blue lines). Maybe even further if there's a "run up into earnings" under way. } With a higher open, low, close and volume that looks entirely possible. One concern would be the rate of volume rise declining, suggesting we might start running out of steam.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.82% 0.33% -0.79% 4.84% 23.68%
Prior -4.69% 0.00% 3.06% 1.64% 34.48%
On my minimal chart the negatives are the intra-day low continues pounding $0.61 (actually $0.6120 but it's not worth quibbling about that 20/100ths of a penny I think) and we had a lower high. The rate of volume increase is less than yesterday. Price is still "pushing" the experimental 13-period Bollinger band lower limit. The intra-day behavior was suspicious, as described above.
The good items include the close was well above the rising fast EMA's $0.6349 (was $0.6207) and the slow EMA's $0.6443 readings. The close was above the open. Price again made a nice intra-day penetration back above the short-term descending channel bottom line, ~$0.622 and had a substantial portion of the day's time and volume above that range (see the VWAP posted above or below), thanks to the apparent efforts of the west coasties.
The fast and slow EMAs stopped their decline and both are rising now. The fast remains below the slow, but now marginally. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0094 (was $0.0127). Trade range penetrated both EMAs.
The low held flat at $0.61 for the fourth day.
All this was again on rising (for the second day) volume. The volume bars continued making the desired "cupping" pattern.
On my one-year chart, for the fourteenth consecutive day we did not trade completely below all SMAs, all of which are still falling and all in order: 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Our high penetrated, for the fourteenth consecutive day, the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6357 and above the 20-day SMA's for the second consecutive day. Today closed above the 10-day SMA for the first time since 5/26.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in full stochastic and accumulation/distribution. Improvement occurred in RSI (a bit above oversold line), MFI (further above oversold and untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (still oversold but above the lower bound), and ADX-related. Everything was still well below neutral but for momentum which was just below neutral at 0.9538.
Today had weakening in ADX-related and improvement in every other oscillator. RSI is at neutral and momentum is slightly above neutral. Below neutral were MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic (out of oversold).
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6095 and $0.6700 ($0.6095 and $0.6700 yesterday), both stopped falling and went flat, giving a static mid-point.
All in, only the intra-day behavior described above puts me negative. The old "don't fight the tape" adage makes me go near-term positive as most likely though.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions and considering yesterday's readings I'm going to call this movement good for today because short percentage moved down nearer my desired range (needs re-check) while buy percentage moved into the range that strongly suggests continued upside is likely.
The spread contracted a bit, which I think is good - it was too wide - but is still wide enough to suggest movement as most likely, in this case it should be upward.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held steady for the third day at an abysmal 19 negatives and 5 positives. Change since 04/28 is -$0.1069, -14.54%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.6415%, -0.7567%, -0.8905%, -0.7494%, -0.6808%, -0.6688%, -0.7140%, -0.8520%, -0.8128%, and -0.9712%.
All in, a very unusual occurrence today. I see nothing here to give me a negative feeling and a lot that suggests near-term positive movement is most likely.
Bill
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