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Oich- we are holding this board. Fine. I

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keekee   Wednesday, 05/31/17 02:13:36 PM
Re: oich post# 203
Post # of 249 
Oich- we are holding this board. Fine. I Wanted to share my note here on the numbers. I have shared this to two people privately.

KeeKee’s Trading Note: ESTIMATED RECOVERY FOR HH GREGG

Cash = $1.7 Million, Estimated Recovery Rate: 100.00% Actual = $1.7M
Credit Card = $13.5 Million, Estimated Recovery Rate: 85.00% Actual = $11.5M
Accounts Receivable = $31.2 Million, Estimated Recovery Rate: 90.00% Actual = $28M
Inventories = $100.80 Million, Estimated Recovery Rate: 70.00% Actual = $70.56
Prepaid Expenses = $5.6 Million, Estimated Recovery Rate: 100.00% Actual = $5.60
Income Tax = $0.70 Million, Estimated Recovery Rate: 100.00% Actual = $0.7M
Property and Equipment = $70.6 Million, Estimated Recovery Rate: 75.00% Actual = $49M
Capitalized Financing Fees = $4 Million, Estimated Recovery Rate: 100.00% Actual = $4 Million
Other Assets = $2.9 Million, Estimated Recovery Rate: 90.00% Actual = $2.6 Million
TOTAL RECOVERABLE ASSETS : $173.6 Million

HERE ARE LIABILITIES AT MARCH 31, 2017

Liabilities

Accounts Payable $14.70
Customer Deposits $17.90
Other Accrued Expenses $16.20
DIP $23.70
Other Long Term $4.00
Deferred Rent 47.7 Actual (Payable assuming Landlord’s Cap to rent applied at 15% of total sum) $7.2M
Liabilities Subject to Compromise is $122.3 Million. Actual (Payable assuming Landlord’s Cap to rent applied $15% of total sum) $18.3M .
TOTAL EXPECTED LIABILITY BASED ON MARCH 31, 2017 NUMBERS ONLY $102.

FINAL $173.6 - $102 is $71.6 Million. This is the basis of this trade. I have not made adjustments for leases that may be under one year, or the leases that were successfully transferred. I have knocked down ERR on Credit Cards with Synchrony Bank to 85% even though this will likely trend at $95% because Synchrony does the collection. Also, for the inventory, if you followed the sale like I did, most of the items were sold closer discounts at other stores which implies that the gain on these items were discounted but the basis was recovered. The later day sales with huge discounts were for mostly items that were damaged, out of shape etc. Note that recently Sports Authority recovered $101% on their inventory plus $1.8 million.

CONCLUSION: Although we don’t have expense for April and May, we know that most stores handed over sales to Hilco in April and froze most admin expenses. In March, only about $650 was paid to professionals handling the bankruptcy (attorneys, accountants, etc). With a very high probability VHP pool of $70 million in play, you can see that any recovery here would be substantial based on current PPS. Thank you again and goodluck to all.

NOTE: I used the Universal Recovery Model on this. Numbers may come in slightly lower or higher but I rely on it.

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