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Re: ukie post# 227

Tuesday, 08/12/2003 9:10:01 PM

Tuesday, August 12, 2003 9:10:01 PM

Post# of 1693
So lets see: "15 are playable".
A-A, K-K, Q-Q, A-K, J-J, 10-10, 9-9, 8-8, A-Q, and 7-7. Top openers from Phil Hellmuth's book. Then he adds 6-6, 5-5, 4-4, 3-3, 2-2, then he adds A-x suited, and K-Q. And if I was to call early before the flop right after the button I would not play the lower pairs or the K-Q unless it was suited.
Far cry from 176.


Actually, it is more than 176.

There are 78 possible pair combinations (each of the 13 types of cards has six pair combinations). Suited A-x is another
48 possible hands, bringing the total to 126. K-Q adds another 16, bringing the total to 142. If we add suited K-x (another 48), which most people would play, the total rises to 190. And, this is not all of the hands that may be playable through the flop -- although the quality of the hands after this is clearly less.

With the big blind being $1000 and the small blind $500, you're telling me you would call to see the flop with one of 176 hole card combinations?
Next round the blinds go up to $2000 and $1000, then $4000, $2000. Same strategy? I don't think so.


Let me answer your first direct question first: No, that is not what I am telling you; I neither said that nor did I mean that. Maybe you missed some of what I posted. I said, "Of course, as the quality of the initial cards declines, so does the amount that one might wager to see the flop with those cards." I could have been more complete and added that whether one bets depends not only on the cards, but also where in the betting one is in relation to the cards, who else, if anyone, has also bet, and how much was wagered. We all know and see folks who never bluff as well as folks who will stay with almost anything.

Then consider that you're sitting with $4500 of chips in front of view. What happens when someone goes all in before the flop, what would you do? Call? Yeah right!

Well, that depends on the cards -- among other things. If your point is that there are lots of variables, then I agree completely. If your point is that there are literally only 15 playable hands, then, no offense intended, you are simply wrong -- mathematically and analytically. On the other hand, my off-hand estimate of 15 percent of the possible hands is probably a bit high: more likely, it is in the 10 percent range.

All of this aside, over a several hour span, there are typically two or three hands that end up being what I call "make it or break it" hands -- that is, hands that will decide how the night goes on balance. That boat may look great, but if it looses to a higher boat or four of a kind, what looked like a great winner may all of a sudden be a dog loser. Nothing may make a nut flush go from great to sucking hind tit quicker than a pair on the board.


Troy

Those who shoot from the hip usually end up just shooting themselves.

Plan the grub and grub the plan.

Where is the party tonight? Who is bringng the drinks?

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