Market Direction and Stock Trends

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:) NASDAQ Composite Index Cash Analysis (:
By Martin Armstrong | May 20, 2017

Analysis for the Week of May 22, 2017

We should see a trend change come June in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 607404 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 607404 to 580515. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. As of the close of Thu. May. 18, 2017, the market is immediately in a bearish posture near-term for now on the daily level. NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 605513 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's closing of 538312. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 599681 following the high established Tue. May. 16, 2017.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 15th at 617016, which was up 66 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 8th. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been a sharp move of 6.28% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 15th has exceeded the previous high of 593639 made back during the week of April 3rd. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 420976 made the week of February 8th, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall. Interestingly, the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in a bullish phase for the past 14 months since the low established back in February 2016.

Critical support still underlies this market at 488816 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.

Rationally, my comprehensive outlook recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in February 2016 has been a long-term Bullish trend in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash which remains in motion as long as we hold above 487157 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing.

Consequently, this has been a 1 year rally in motion since 2016. Caution is advisable since this is also 8 years up from the low of given that was the major low 2009. We must pay attention to the closing for this year. If we close lower at year end, beneath 538312, then we can see a pause in the uptrend into next year. Penetrating intraday last year's low of 420976 will confirm a serious correction into next year. However, we have rallied to exceed last year's high last month. We need to see a closing above 551237 at year-end to see a continued rally is possible into next year. Exceeding this year's high next year and holding last year's low intraday will signal the bullish trend is still intact. A breach of last year's low of 420976 intraday will negate that outcome.

Bearing in mind the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2019, 2021, 2023 and 2025. Regarding the various factors, we see a strong potential of a decline moving into 2019 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2021. This pattern becomes a possibility if last year's low of 420976 is penetrated even intraday. The significant timing model, the Directional Change Model targets are during 2023 and during 2024. This model often picks the high or low, but can also elect a breakout to a new higher trading zone or a breakdown to a new lower trading level. On the subject of the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January 2018. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only volatility. Respectfully, our Panic Cycle target, for the next period to watchis during 2016. Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle differs from just volatility. This can be either an outside reversal or a sharp move in only one direction. Panic Cycles can be either up or down. Watch the oscillators and the reversals to determine the best indication of the potential direction.

Eyeing the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of May 8th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 551237. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, last month was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 46 weeks. The last weekly level low was 457425, which formed during the week of June 27th, 2016. The last high on the weekly level was 617016, which was created during the week of May 15th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 14 months. The last monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, 2016. The last high on the monthly level was 607404, which was created during April. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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