Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/17 2017 EOD

I'm now suspecting short-consolidation will shortly end and, switching strongly, now think we will not get a leg up, but rather an exit from consolidation with a leg down.

Today was our classic manipulated open high, go higher, collapse to the day's low by 11:19, come back up (but less than usual - only gain ~1/3rd of the range lost), and go flattish the rest of the day and close just below $0.65, losing hope, IMO, for a near-term appearance of a leg up.

There were no pre-market trades.

B/a at 9:08 was 2.4K:200 $0.64/8 and just before open was 100:500 $0.6401/$0.68.

09:30-11:08 opened the day with a 781 buy for $0.6850. B/a just after open was 20.2K:900 $0.65/$0.6652. Then came 9:33's 100 $0.6652, 9:34's 4.6K $0.6508 (3.2K)/2/8/2/8 (700)/2/3, 9:39's b/a 222:127 $0.6502/$0.67, 9:39's 100 $0.669, 9:44's 100 $0.669, 9:47's b/a 222:127 $0.6502/$0.67, 9:48's 200 $0.6503/2, 9:50's 100 $0.6690, 9:53's b/a 222:2.1K $0.6502/99, 9:53's 400 $0.6509 (300)/99, 9:55's 215 $0.6503/99, 9:57's 245 $0.6509, 9:59's b/a 222:2.1K $0.6502/97, 10:01's 100 $0.6594, 10:04's 566 $0.6516 (466)/97, 10:06's b/a 822:2.1K $0.6502/97, 10:07's 100 $0.6584, 10:13's 100 $0.6584, 10:17's b/a 722:4.7K $0.6502/96, 10:19's 100 $0.6584, 10:25's 100 $0.6596, 10:26's 100 $0.6549, 10:29's b/a 722:5.9K $0.6502/95, 10:33's 100 $0.6584, 10:36's 1.3K $0.6543 (500)/10 (500)/95/16/10, 9:39's 300 $0.6590/5/10, 10:44's b/a 2.6K:4.5K $0.6510/74, 10:46's 100 $0.6542, 10:54's 200 $0.6530/17, 11:01's 100 $0.6549, 11:02's b/a 2.7K:3K $0.6510/49, and the period ended on 11:08's 100 $0.6529.

11:09-11:19 at first began very low/no-volume $0.6500/4 after a small drop on 11:09's 26.6K $0.6510/29/10/29/48/10/16/48/29/10/02/00/05/ .../00/04/00/04 ...00. B/a at 11:17 was 3.6K:900 $0.6500/1. The period ended on another drop - 11:19's 1.8K $0.65/$0.6405 (1.1K).

11:20-11:57, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume (no trades 11:21-:39) $0.6498/$0.65 on 11:21's 200 $0.6498. B/a at 10:24 was 2.3K:1.1K $0.6498/9, 11:54 2.4K:900 $0.6498/$0.6574. The period ended on 11:57's 100 $0.65.

11:58-14:28 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6500/73 on 12:01's 5.3K $0.6574 and 12:06-:07's 3.8K $0.6500/74/00/74/00/37/00/37/00. B/a at 12:14 was 300:3.2K $0.6500/73, 12:33 200:2.3K $0.65/71, 12:47 300:2.5K $0.6500/71, 13:02 200:2.4K $0.6500/70, 13:17 1.8K:2.7K $0.6498/$0.6529, 13:32 8.5K:2.7K $0.6500/21, 13:48 7.4K:2.4K $0.6500/19. Volume was interrupted by 13:56's 25.2K $0.6500/18 (400)/00. B/a at 14:02 was 2.3K:500 $0.6500/4, 14:18 2.3K:1.3K $0.6500/2. The period ended on 14:28's 12K $0.65 (12K incl 10K blk).

14:29-15:53, after 15 no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6499/$0.6575 on 14:44's 100 $0.65. B/a at 14:39 was 1.9K:2K $0.6498/9, 14:48 1.8K:3.1K $0.6498/$0.6557, 15:04 1.8K:2.5K $0.6498/$0.6569, 15:21 1.8K:3.1K $0.6498/$0.6574, 15:34 1.8K:3 $0.6498/$0.6574, 15:48 1.7K:1.5K $0.6498/$0.6547. The period ended on 15:53's 100 $0.6533.

15:54-15:54 did 27.6K $0.6532/15/33/36/37/$0.66 (21.8K blk)/$0.6575/36/75/36/75/$0.66 (3.9K)/$0.65/$0.66/$0.65.

15:55-16:00 did mixed volume $0.6500/49 on 15:55's 100 $0.6549, 15:58's 10.9K $0.6500/49, and ended the period and day ended on 15:59's 270 $0.65 and 16:00's 175 sell for $0.6498.

There were no AH trades.

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 9 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 78,300, 42.09% of day's volume, with a $0.6548 VWAP. For the day's volume I guess the count is alright, but the percentage of day's volume seems a bit above what I would expect considering the intra-day behavior described above. The VWAP was above the day's $0.6530, suggesting either retailers or maybe covering shorters were taking these larger trades.

Looking at that one minute that took about 1/7th of day's volume, and the larger trade in that minute and it's price and buy percentage change, I'm leaning towards a retail investor being the primary taker and the cause of the elevated VWAP on the larger trades.

 
 Ending  Period  Period  Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  11:08   10476 $0.6502 $0.6850     $6,867.28 $0.6555  5.63% 41.16% Incl 11:09 $0.6510 5,100 
  11:19   39725 $0.6405 $0.6548    $25,823.51 $0.6501 21.35% 16.78% 
  11:57     800 $0.6498 $0.6500       $519.93 $0.6499  0.43% 17.10% 
  14:28   89763 $0.6498 $0.6574    $58,557.95 $0.6524 48.25% 26.26% Incl 12:01 $0.6574 5,000 12:24 $0.6572 10,000 
                                                                         12:27 $0.6572 6,000 13:09 $0.6498 8,400 
                                                                         13:56 $0.6500 7,000 14:28 $0.6500 10,000 
  15:53    4580 $0.6499 $0.6575     $2,983.66 $0.6515  2.46% 26.27% 
  15:54   27608 $0.6500 $0.6600    $18,211.50 $0.6596 14.84% 37.51% Incl 15:54 $0.6600 21,800 
  16:00   11445 $0.6498 $0.6549     $7,443.63 $0.6504  6.15% 38.04% Incl 15:58 $0.6500 5,000

Check that 15:54 one-minute period that did ~1/7th of day's volume and boosted VWAP and buy percentage noticeably. Without it the day would be a lot uglier than it ended up being, and it's still pretty damn ugly if you ask me.

Beyond that, another period of just 11 minutes took over 21% of day's volume at a VWAP about a penny off the day's low and tanked the buy percentage - someone was selling heavily into that low VWAP. As buy percentage worked it's way up VWAP had a difficult time correlating with that buying behavior.

I hate to say it at these prices, but I suspect the ATM was being used and there's no concern for what the sell price is.

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today     -0.72%  -1.45%  -0.72%  -1.55% -34.91% 
 Prior      6.15%   1.55%   0.00%   1.54%   7.71%

What a change from yesterday! I had noted { Today supports, I think, that "I think they show the results of manipulation". Today's movements also support the several places, charts, my unconventional stuff, ... where I suspected "mild bullish bias" within entering a short-term consolidation. } Looks like a big fail doesn't it? AHA! But at the top of day's post, where I summarize, I said { I'm now switching from "mild bullish bias" within continued short-term consolidation to a negative bias, degree uncertain. }[/] Ego saved from a bruising! :)

On my minimal chart, we again saw the high get above the short-term descending resistance (descending orange line), a bit lower than yesterday's ~$0.67ish, as today's opening minute high again moved well above it. Like yesterday, by ~10:00 highs were down to ~$0.66 and heading much lower though, hitting $0.6405 at 11:19. As with yesterday, price never approached the line again.

N.B. The behavior was so similar I wondered if I had used the wrong day for yesterday's post, so I pulled up a three-day one-minute chart. They are so similar in configuration, but with only price range offsets, I understood why I thought I may have used the wrong day. I hadn't. But the market manager(s) are obviously using the same play book.

The slow EMA continued to decline with the fast below the slow. Yesterday the fast EMA had a one-day tick up, thanks to the marginally higher (and manipulated IMO) close. Today it gave it back, ticking lower again. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0275 (was $0.0291). The rate of descent for the slow EMA continues to slow marginally.

The high again hit the slow EMA, $0.6805, for the third consecutive day but it was, as before, again due to typical early manipulations to set a high. Regardless, if we get above it and some days later that's followed by a cross of the fast EMA above the slow we should have a good bullish signal.

For the third consecutive day the low couldn't hold $0.65 again as the low hit $0.6405. Fortunately that was hit only in a single minute, 11:19, and price immediately returned to just below $0.65. Today the high, even though manipulated, was lower and volume was down ~35%%, suggesting little strength in the small move lower.

Yesterday I noted { The decline in rate of rise in the volume suggests the manipulations are having less effect in the upward direction. } Today seems to confirm that as we had lower low and high on reduced volume.

As with yesterday, it's obvious we are solidly in the short-term consolidation I've been saying we were entering and the question remains how long will we remain there and will we ever get an up leg which should come about if we are still in a medium-term consolidation too.

On my one-year chart, for the third consecutive day we did not trade completely below all SMAs, all of which are falling with them all in order, 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Our (manipulated) high penetrated, for the third consecutive day, the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6604. Unfortunately, for the third day of trying to get above the 10-day SMA, we again closed below it.

Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening only in accumulation/distribution and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in RSI (squeaked out of oversold), MFI (untrusted by me and still barely above oversold), momentum, Williams %R (exited oversold) and full stochastic. Everything is still below neutral.

Today had weakening in every oscillator but full stochastic, which continued to rise further out of oversold. Everything remains below neutral and in oversold are RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and Williams %R.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6187 and $0.7309 ($0.6198 and $0.7421 yesterday), are continuing converging as the lower limit rises while the upper limit declines. The mid-point is falling due to the upper limit's rate of decline being higher than the lower limit's rate of rise.

All in, the conventional TA stuff finally reflects what I interpret my unconventional stuff, especially the intra-day observations and breakdowns, to mean - we are consolidating with a less positive bias. With today's stuff, I switch to a weakening bias, but I still hope to see at least a small leg up appear. It's seeming increasingly less likely near-term though.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but the short percentage exceed my desired range upper limit (needs re-check), not good. Worse, the buy percentage is way below what's need to just expect some flattish VWAP behavior. I'm still believing the ATM is in use.

The spread expanded a bit, due as is now common to what I believe to be a manipulated early-day high now combined with lows which they have not been able to contain. Adding in the lows behavior I now switch from likely remaining in consolidation to thinking a break lower might be in the cards near-term, sans a positive catalyst.

The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held for for the third day at 17 negatives and 7 positives. Change since 04/12 is -$0.1772, -21.35%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.9736%, -0.9789%, -0.8459%, -0.6735%, -0.6459%, -0.7513%, -0.5928%, -0.6491%, -0.4703%, and -0.5319%.

All in, we may remain in short-term consolidation but it's looking less likely.

Bill