I think the share price drop we are seeing is more a case of the market pricing the inevitable cash raise that's going to happen this summer. Or perhaps some big institutional investor might have lost interest in the company and is selling its position. Anyway, few things to consider in the next few months:
1) The 2017 "Secure licensing or commercial partnership(s)" milestone - I think this milestone is there for a reason and the wording of this milestone does not indicate it will be just another drug supply agreement. My guess is this could be an ex-US partnership with cash, in an indication other than melanoma (maybe TNBC/H&N). Punit did mention a while back that the current registration trial collaboration would not preclude them from doing ex-US collaborations. I see no reason as of now, to doubt this milestone will be checked off in the same way I didn't doubt the registration trial drug supply agreement would be announced.
2) The amount of cash they raise this summer could be indicative of the weight the above milestone (if it happens) might carry from a capital perspective. Normally they've been raising ~$10M each year in the last few years. If they raise less this time, we could perhaps assume the licensing milestone will have a meaningful capital component attached to it.
3) If there are no delays with reg. trial enrollment that's starting in 2 weeks, we may see interim data in late Q4 or Q1 next year. If the ORR in this interim data set is >= 30%, they would be eligible to apply for BTD and AA (no other treatment for anti-PD-1 nonresponders out there currently).
The share price sucks big time and may even drop a little more when the D-word is announced but it's not all gloom and doom just yet IMO. If we are still in this range in 6-9 months time, then yes, I will panic. Pease note, I by no means mean to downplay the risk associated with investing in a speculative microcap like ONCS. We could end up losing our investment completely if the company does not deliver in the end. However, as of now, we need to put some of these things into perspective to better assess the current risk/reward situation. Assess for yourselves and trade/invest carefully. GLTA.
