Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[jakedogman1]

Tappan has me feet tappin....

read item 8...

https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/IAPD/Content/Common/crd_iapd_Brochure.aspx?BRCHR_VRSN_ID=364322

special situation...

Assets: (my WAG back of napkin)

PS IP including bavi ... oncology, viral.... possibly the value add for primary drivers in I-O icluding PD1 and Car-t with collective MKT value of I-O components of BP of over $140 bil in value (my wag).. and they are at war looking for an edge...

My est of value $250 mil (low ball) to $1.5 bil... or more

Current value $0

Exosome PS diagnostic... key player or one of many? ... early in the race (or better stated it's brand new to me so i am clueless) but story is very sellable... early "cheap" detection for OC and possibly more

don't know the value model but could be big even at $50 a pop ... worldwide? how big?

just 300,000 tests per year at $50 pop is $15 mil per year times 14 multiple is $200 mil val. Again, don't know the metrics, cost parameters, dist agreements etc nor the market potential which could be ten times or more... And the old Dupont formula from b-school of high turnover at low margin is also a winner

value est WAG $75 mil or more and could change dramatically...

current value $0

Avid..

3 to 5 times sales... depends on book etc

value est $200 mil plus... the sad part is this should be expanding and geographically diversifying yesterday..

Current value est of Avid $140 mil taking cash into account...

total PPHM $180 mil mkt cap plus preferred

Special situation is a mgmt team that doesn't know how to sell itself or doesn't want to sell itself which is problematic when it has been selling itself via ATM... They have made themselves institutionally unattractive be either design or being clueless... The BOD makeup in it of itself is lacking in basic common sense with respect to corporate governance.

The key to this puzzle is a change of control in mgmt in order to unlock value...

Hopefully Stafford and Tappan can make stuff happen...