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Re: Wild-bill post# 28121

Monday, 05/15/2017 9:01:01 AM

Monday, May 15, 2017 9:01:01 AM

Post# of 29204
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/12 2017 EOD

It looks like we are indeed entering the short-term consolidation with a mild bullish bias, which would fit with a leg up developing within consolidation. But ...

Today being a Friday, we must view the stuff with a jaundiced eye, especially the volume (and larger trades).

Note the 10:49 minute took almost 10% of day's volume and dropped the buy percentage about 660 basis points - a big sell.

Today, with the exception of that minute, a couple other brief 1-3 minute pops up, and the normal early and late volatility, was a long, extremely low-volume flattish day in a narrow price range. Without that minute and those few pops up, the spread would have been around 1 penny - overall a perfect example of "The Friday Effect".

There was 1 pre-market odd-lot trade of 2 shares for $0.64.

B/a just before open was 500:1.3K $0.64/70.

09:30-09:51 opened the day with a 638 sell for $0.66 & $0.66 x 1,462, x 66. B/a just after open was 13.2K:3.3K $0.6550/$0.6649 (offers falling). Then came 9:31's 840 $0.6550 (300)/$0.66, 9:33's 100 $0.6605, 9:33's b/a 100:2.3K $0.6562/$0.6599 (offers falling), 9:34's 100 $0.66, 9:36's 2.5K $0.6599/51/50 (2.2K), 9:38's b/a 10K:100 $0.6550/99, 9:39's 180 $0.66, 9:40's 100 $0.6599, 9:41's 4K $0.6599 (1.9K)/$0.66/$0.6598 (2K), 9:42's 100 $0.66, 9:43's 100 $0.66, 9:44's 100 $0.66, 9:45's 100 $0.6599, 9:46's 3.9K $0.6551, 9:47's 100 $0.66, 9:50's 100 $0.66, 9:51's b/a 11K:1K $0.6550/99, and the period ended on 9:51's 1.4K $0.6599 (500)/$0.66 (800)/49.

09:52-10:48 began very low/no-volume (only 100-share minutes 9:59-10:29) $0.6550/$0.6609, with slowly rising lows and more slowly falling highs, on 9:52's 2.1K $0.6609/1/9/1/9. B/a at 9:53 was 11K:395 $0.6550/$0.6667, 10:02 10K:595 $0.6550/$0.6667, 10:17 10K:1.4K $0.6550/92 (offers falling). Volume was interrupted by 10:30's 2.1K $0.6598/9/$0.66/$0.6589/$0.66/$0.6590/$0.66. B/a at 10:32 was 30:900 $0.6600/16 (offers falling, bids backed by presented 400 $0.6592) and range became $0.6592/$0.66. Volume was interrupted by 10:35's 1.9K $0.6600/2/0/$0.6598/2. B/a at 10:38 was 400:70 $0.6592/$0.66 (offers backed by presented 1.4K $0.6601). The period ended on 10:48's 500 $0.6586/92/71.

10:49-10:49 had b/a at 10:49 of 9.7K:1.9K $0.6550/92 and did a one-shot up to $0.68, which could not hold, on 9:49's 19.5K, 61.5% of all prior volume, $0.6560/50/71/92/71/93/71/96/$0.66/$0.6571/$0.66/$0.6571/92/71/$0.6608/26/$0.6571/$0.6609/$0.6550/$0.6667/$0.6571/$0.6626/$0.67/$0.6571/$0.6799/$0.68/$0.6571/$0.68/$0.6571/50/$0.6675. It was a heavy sell as buy percentage dropped from 53.71% at 10:48 to 47.08%.

10:50-13:01 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6551/$0.6625 on 10:50's 100 $0.6625. B/a at 10:57 was 8.3K:1.8K $0.6596, 11:02 8.3K:2K $0.6550/94, 11:17 7.5K:500 $0.6550/$0.67. Price was interrupted by 11:25's 200 $0.67. B/a at 11:32 was 7.5K:500 $0.6550/$0.67. Volume was interrupted by 11:42-:43's 3.3K $0.6600 (100)/25/24 (100) and $0.66 (2.5K). B/a at 11:47 was 7.3K:3K $0.6550/98. At 12:01 range had narrowed to $0.6573/95. B/a at 12:02 was 7.4K:3.5K $0.6550/94, 12:17 7.5K:3K $0.6550/92, 12:32 7.7K:3.5K $0.6550/99, 12:47 7.7K:3.9K $0.6550/96. The period ended on 13:01's 4.1K $0.6584 (2.3K)/85 (500)/$0.66 (1.4K).

13:02-14:45, after two no-trades minutes began extremely low/no-volume $0.656/$0.6624, with slowly rising lows an rapidly falling highs on 13:04's 100 $0.664. B/a at 13:02 was 7.6K:1K $0.6550/$0.6730, 13:19 500:1.7K $0.6560/$0.6604. Volume was interrupted by 13:25's 3.9K $0.6602/$0.658/$0.66 (OHC). By 13:28 the lows settled around $0.6573, +/-, and the highs settled around $0.6596, +/-. B/a at 13:32 was 7.5K:600 $0.6550/96, 13:47 7.4K:100 $0.6550/$0.66. Price and volume were interrupted by 13:53's 1.8K $0.66/$0.655/$0.66 (OLC). B/a at 14:02 was 6.9K:700 $0.6550/$0.66, 14:17 7K:1.2K $0.6550/$0.66. Pice and volume were interrupted by 14:27-:38's 7K $0.6599/$0.6600/$0.6625/$0.6675 (3K)/$0.6625 (2.1K)/$0.6600/$0.6625/$0.6693/$0.6618/$0.6625/$0.6600/$0.6658/$0.6625/$0.6600. B/a at 14:32 was 7K:800 $0.6550/$0.67. The period ended on 14:45's 500 $0.66.

14:46-15:44, after two no-trades minutes, did a quick seven minute extremely low/no-volume (but for 14:55's 1.2K) drop to hit a low of $0.65 at 14:55 and began mostly low-volume, through 15:36, $0.655/$0.66 on 14:48's 100 $0.6548. B/a at 14:47 was 6.9K:100 $0.6550/92, 15:02 6.8K:100 $0.6550/96, 15:17 4.2K:1.2K $0.6550/$0.66, 15:32 200:1.1K $0.6551/$0.66. Volume switched to mostly medium and some low after a price and volume interruption by 15:35-:38's 21.1K $0.6600/$0.6599/$0.6575/$0.6600 (800)/$0.6575/$0.6600 (6.8K)/$0.6575/$0.6550/$0.6575 (900)/$0.6600/$0.6575/$0.6550 (4.8K)/$0.6500/$0.6550/$0.6500/$0.6600/$0.6550 (800)/$0.6600 (3.1K)/$0.6550. The period ended on 15:44's 400 $0.655/$0.66.

15:45-16:00 began low/medium-volume, rising to high-volume by 15:58, $0.655/$0.66 on 15:45's2.2K $0.66/$0.655/$0.66. B/a at 15:49 was 11.8K:1.6K $0.65/6. At 15:56 the lows went to $0.65. The period and day ended on 15:59's 4.1K $0.6600 (1.5K)/$6500/$0.6600 (1.6K)/$0.6500/$0.6600 (800) and 16:00's 166 share sell for $0.65.

There were no AH trades.

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were only 2 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 11,772, 5.79% of day's volume, with a $0.6550 VWAP. Both the count and percentage of day's volume are extremely low. The VWAP is well below the day's $0.6591, suggesting MMs or shorters are most likely the buyers, but we'll never know.

Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:51 15940 $0.6550 $0.6649 $10,488.70 $0.6580 7.83% 41.50%
10:48 15215 $0.6550 $0.6609 $10,031.79 $0.6593 7.48% 53.71%
10:49 19540 $0.6550 $0.6800 $12,909.00 $0.6606 9.60% 47.08%
13:01 31538 $0.6550 $0.6700 $20,763.69 $0.6584 15.50% 40.62% Incl 12:36 $0.6550 6,772
14:45 36249 $0.6550 $0.6693 $23,948.17 $0.6607 17.81% 50.50%
15:44 52288 $0.6500 $0.6600 $34,406.33 $0.6580 25.70% 52.83% Incl 15:14 $0.6550 5,000
16:00 29074 $0.6500 $0.6600 $19,161.12 $0.6590 14.29% 57.96%

Today being Friday, I have no faith whatsoever in these metrics, especially the buy percentage. The ending value is just too far from the recent trend (see the table below). Having said that, the ending buy percentage and VWAP movements do fit with yesterday's { I'll go with my stuff, after discounting one of the items (see below), and say we're entering short-term consolidation with a mild positive bias. } There was also a reasonable correlation between buy percentage and VWAP movement.

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.00% 0.00% -1.45% -0.26% 3.11%
Prior -4.18% 3.16% 0.17% -1.26% -22.07%

As above, it being Friday I'm not placing any faith in this stuff. Also as with above, these items fit within a framework of consolidation with a mild positive bias.



On my minimal chart, we continued the trend of trading below the short-term descending resistance (descending orange line) and today with no exception for the early strength as was the case yesterday as our high was right on the line AFAICT.1s

Price is again not "pushing" the lower experimental 13-period Bollinger band limit.

Both the fast and slow EMAs continue to decline with the fast below the slow. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0405 (was $0.0432). This is the third consecutive contraction of the gap, again due to the fast EMA's descent rate slowing.

Yesterday I noted { With the low and close both >= $0.65, I think the chances are good we will hold here through a short-term consolidation. This assessment is bolstered by the volume reducing for the third consecutive day. Adding in a lower high with a relatively flat low produces a pattern that does look like short-term consolidation is beginning. } Our low held $0.65 again with a lower high and volume, for all practical purposes, flat. This is a classic consolidation entry behavior and also common before a reversal, usually to make a leg up within consolidation.

If today weren't Friday I would kick the confidence level up another notch and say putting some chips in may not be a high-risk proposition. Being it is Friday, I say let's see what happens Monday, looking for some actual positive movement or at least indication of continued sideways movement.

Regardless, we have several resistances just above - $0.70 (horizontal red line), $0.73/4 (rising orange and descending red lines). The mid-point of the Bollinger band, today ~$0.6981, could also demonstrate resistance. With those resistances being so close I think we'd need a strong bullish indication to make the risk/reward more attractive. Right now there doesn't see to be enough upside without that strong indication.

On my one-year chart, for the eleventh consecutive day, trading range was completely below all SMAs, all of which are falling with them all in order, 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Our high almost touched the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6812 for the second consecutive day (yesterday $0.6893, but keep in mind yesterday it was that { 9:53's 500 $0.6893/$0.69/$0.6751 } that caused the touch and we came nowhere near it again). With today missing by only $0.0012, can we consider it a touch? Does it matter yet? I think no, not until we start trading at or above it. At current price level we have many more days of all the SMAs falling, so I guess we'll get above the 10 just by dint of that fact.

Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI (still oversold), accumulation/distribution, momentum, Williams %R (still oversold), and ADX-related (in aggregate nearer flattish though). Improvement occurred only in full stochastic (still barely oversold). The full stochastic made a positive cross though with the fast component (%K) crossing above the slow component (%D). I expected it would likely exit oversold the following day, barring any big negative behavior.

Today had weakening in RSI (still oversold), accumulation/distribution, Williams %R (still oversold), and ADX-related (again in aggregate nearer flattish though). Improvement occurred in MFI (still oversold and untrusted by me), momentum, and full stochastic (exited oversold). With the low volume and today being Friday I'm not putting a lot of faith yet in the transition to a greater mix of positive indications but am glad to see some improvement regardless.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6164 and $0.7799 ($0.6253 and $0.7857 yesterday), continued diverging as both limits declined, the lower faster than the upper. The mid-point is falling.

All in, some early signs of less negative behavior appeared but must be considered in light of today being a Friday. Combined with yesterday though I do think it's looking ever more likely that we are entering that short-term consolidation I've been calling for. I'll even stick with the "mild bullish bias" modifier for now.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and both are in "good" ranges - the short percentage just above the middle of my desired range (needs re-check) and the buy percentage has risen three consecutive days. We have to discount that last item though because today was Friday. If Monday makes any kind of a decent range though I'll happily buy into a "change in trend" scenario.

The spread has now narrowed to a value close to what I expect to see if we are entering short-term consolidation. It still suggests some movement but is indeterminant as to degree and direction now.

The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, held steady for the second day at 16 negatives and 8 positives. Change since 04/07 is -$0.1219, -15.61%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.6735%, -0.6459%, -0.7513%, -0.5928%, -0.6491%, -0.4703%, -0.5319%, -0.4198%, -0.2739%, and -0.1888%.

All in, if today weren't Friday I would feel fairly confident that we are entering the consolidation I've been expecting. As it is, I'll wait one more day before changing my call from "entering" to "in" short-term consolidation. I think the "mild bullish bias" still applies as it being Friday didn't offer anything to counter that.

Bill

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