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Saturday, May 13, 2017 10:05:07 AM
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures
By Hedgopia | May 13, 2017
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 9, 2017.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net long 85.1k, down 6.4k.
Yet another high on the cash (2390.90). Rallied to 2403.87 intraday Tuesday before getting repelled near the prior March 1 high of 2400.98.
The 10-day moving average which provided support for several sessions last week and this week is now flat. As is the 50-day below, which likely gets tested. For the first time since April 19, the index closed below the 10-day.
Flows are not helping much.
Following outflows of $3.7 billion in the prior week, U.S.-based equity funds lost another $2.1 billion in the week to Wednesday (courtesy of Lipper).
In the same week, $2.5 billion was withdrawn from SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, (courtesy of ETF.com). This followed outflows of $3.9 billion in the prior week.
Nasdaq 100 index (mini): Currently net long 94.5k, down 11.3k.
Tuesday scored a new intraday high of 5691.21 on the cash (5686.81). The tech-heavy index continues to outperform its major U.S. peers.
The index remains insanely overbought, but momentum is intact.
In due course, a retest of the April 20 breakout is possible – even necessary – and it is 4.5 percent away. This also approximates the 50-day moving average.
In the week ended Wednesday, QQQ, the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, gained $40 million. This followed inflows of $1.7 billion in the prior two weeks (courtesy of ETF.com).
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 40.1k, up 27.9k.
The cash’s rally attempt this week was essentially stopped at the falling 10-day moving average. Come Thursday, the 50-day – slightly dropping to flat – was tested, drawing dip buyers. The average was tested again Friday. As things stand, bears have the ball.
The index (1382.77) continues to trade within a five-plus-month range – between 1390s and 1340s. Either way it breaks, repercussions will be massive. Thus far, there have been two false breakouts.
In the week ended Wednesday, IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, lost $1.2 billion. This followed inflows of $3.2 billion in the prior couple of weeks (courtesy of ETF.com).
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 35.7k, down 4.3k.
The cash (99.13) managed to retake the 200-day moving average.
That said, three weeks ago, the dollar index lost a rising trend line from last May, the underside of which provided resistance Thursday. If this is won over, there is resistance around 100.5, which represents a declining trend line from early this year.
Non-commercials continue to shy away, having cut net longs to a 30-week low.
VIX: Currently net short 115.7k, up 9k.
The cash (10.40) had a back-to-back sub-10 close on Monday and Tuesday. Prior to this, throughout its 27-year history, VIX closed in single digits only nine other times. (The all-time low of 8.89 was recorded on December 27, 1993.)
Here is an encouraging fact for volatility bulls. In each of those nine instances, VIX was higher one or three or six months later.
As things stand, the daily MACD seems to be on the verge of a bullish crossover. And the 10-day moving average is curling up, although the 20-day is still dropping, and may take some time before it does that. Bulls first need to be able to defend the 10-day.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-95/
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
By Hedgopia | May 13, 2017
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 9, 2017.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net long 85.1k, down 6.4k.
Yet another high on the cash (2390.90). Rallied to 2403.87 intraday Tuesday before getting repelled near the prior March 1 high of 2400.98.
The 10-day moving average which provided support for several sessions last week and this week is now flat. As is the 50-day below, which likely gets tested. For the first time since April 19, the index closed below the 10-day.
Flows are not helping much.
Following outflows of $3.7 billion in the prior week, U.S.-based equity funds lost another $2.1 billion in the week to Wednesday (courtesy of Lipper).
In the same week, $2.5 billion was withdrawn from SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, (courtesy of ETF.com). This followed outflows of $3.9 billion in the prior week.
Nasdaq 100 index (mini): Currently net long 94.5k, down 11.3k.
Tuesday scored a new intraday high of 5691.21 on the cash (5686.81). The tech-heavy index continues to outperform its major U.S. peers.
The index remains insanely overbought, but momentum is intact.
In due course, a retest of the April 20 breakout is possible – even necessary – and it is 4.5 percent away. This also approximates the 50-day moving average.
In the week ended Wednesday, QQQ, the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, gained $40 million. This followed inflows of $1.7 billion in the prior two weeks (courtesy of ETF.com).
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 40.1k, up 27.9k.
The cash’s rally attempt this week was essentially stopped at the falling 10-day moving average. Come Thursday, the 50-day – slightly dropping to flat – was tested, drawing dip buyers. The average was tested again Friday. As things stand, bears have the ball.
The index (1382.77) continues to trade within a five-plus-month range – between 1390s and 1340s. Either way it breaks, repercussions will be massive. Thus far, there have been two false breakouts.
In the week ended Wednesday, IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, lost $1.2 billion. This followed inflows of $3.2 billion in the prior couple of weeks (courtesy of ETF.com).
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 35.7k, down 4.3k.
The cash (99.13) managed to retake the 200-day moving average.
That said, three weeks ago, the dollar index lost a rising trend line from last May, the underside of which provided resistance Thursday. If this is won over, there is resistance around 100.5, which represents a declining trend line from early this year.
Non-commercials continue to shy away, having cut net longs to a 30-week low.
VIX: Currently net short 115.7k, up 9k.
The cash (10.40) had a back-to-back sub-10 close on Monday and Tuesday. Prior to this, throughout its 27-year history, VIX closed in single digits only nine other times. (The all-time low of 8.89 was recorded on December 27, 1993.)
Here is an encouraging fact for volatility bulls. In each of those nine instances, VIX was higher one or three or six months later.
As things stand, the daily MACD seems to be on the verge of a bullish crossover. And the 10-day moving average is curling up, although the 20-day is still dropping, and may take some time before it does that. Bulls first need to be able to defend the 10-day.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-95/
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
• DiscoverGold
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