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Re: ukie post# 225

Monday, 08/11/2003 9:57:08 PM

Monday, August 11, 2003 9:57:08 PM

Post# of 1693
If I remember correctly there are 169 possible combinations with the first two cards dealt down and out of 169 only 15 are playable depending on whose book you read.

If my math is correct, there are actually 2652 possible combinations of two cards. Think of it this way. There are 52 possible first cards and each one of those has 51 possible mates. 52x51 = 2652. Of that, there are a lot more than 15 playable hands. Any pair is playable, at least through the flop, and there are 78 possible pair combinations (each of the 13 types of cards has six pair combinations). Aside from the pairs, there are lot of other combinations that are playable, again, at least through the flop. For example, each Ace with another card of the same suit is playable. Thus, there are 48 possible suited A-x combinations that are playable. While not "must plays," most folks would say that a suited face card and another card were playable through the flop. Thus, for K,Q,J, there are another 120 unique combinations (44+40+36).

Of course, as the quality of the initial cards declines, so does the amount that one might wager to see the flop with those cards. Without getting into too much more detail, I would guess that there are probably around 15 percent of the possible hands that are almost automatic looks at the flop and another 10-15 percent that may justify a look if the betting has not gotten out of hand or if one is in the right spot to justify taking a look.

This means that with a table of 13 people, one would expect to have an automatic keeper about two hands out of every trip around the table and no more than about four -- on average. Watch the folks that stay in a lot more than this and drop after the flop and you will see their piles decline faster than most. These are the folks more likely to roll the dice, as it were, and the ones you can most likely take some change from when you have a good hand.

I still really like the old saying. "If you have been at the table for 15 minutes and do not know who the patsy is, you are it."



Troy

Those who shoot from the hip usually end up just shooting themselves.

Plan the grub and grub the plan.

Where is the party tonight? Who is bringng the drinks?

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