What May Happen
I think YRCW's market cap will fall to $200 million -- about $6 a share with 33 million shares outstanding.
If the 2nd Q has a negative earnings surprise, the stock could easily fall to 3. Never doubt the capacity of YRCW to lose money.
YRCW will survive, but its unlikely to thrive for a while yet. Recovery from Zollar's mismanagement is going to take a full generation -- at least 20 years. Things really turned down after YRCW bought USF for $1.5 billion cash, issuing over $1 billion in debt. Full recovery will be after the guy who replaces Welch as CEO is replaced. Probably in 2025 or beyond.
This is not an investment. It's a speculation.
NO FIRM IS GOING TO BUY YRCW. Any firm buying YRCW will have to pay billions into the teamsters trust fund. That makes no sense.
I shorted 4000 shares going into earnings in the first Q and covered with a small profit -- I made about $500, not $5000+.
I have been out of the stock, most of the time, since the middle of 2016. The analysts who follow the stock all sounded disgusted on the most recent conference call. They seem to want to blame Welch, as do we, but at the Trucking Association meetings, other than Smith of FDX, he's the only men EVERYBODY shows up for. Chances are most any other trucking exec running YRCW would be messing it up even more. Hard to believe, but that's the reality.
This is the largest LTL trucker and has the most number of heavily experienced drivers. It has a neetwork that is finally reasonably integrated, although it has a long way to go. It is in the interests of the USA to keep YRCW alive for our national security. If and when, there is a Democratic President, a two thirds of Democrats in the Senate, and a Democratic majority in the house, we might see a national takeover of ALL interstate truckers to rationalize the networks and then IPO's of the government freightlines, but that is extremely unlikely. Not impossible, bu less likely than YRCW consistently earning money in the first Q.
