Wednesday, May 10, 2017 11:28:38 AM
PlayMPE actually doesn't really feature in my argument, apart from providing cash for investing Clipstream and value in case Clipstream fails, limiting the downside.
From what I can tell, growth really depends on the major studios, on the provisions in the Universal contract, and on usability. Not all of that is under their control. The upcoming web-based version might give something of a boost, getting more independent studios on board as the software used to be a little cumbersome, but this is just speculation on my part and not terribly material to the investment thesis. They did cut cost a lot by moving to the cloud, the process is almost entirely automated, that helped.
The bet I proposed late Dec. was simply: heads: you win big, tails: you don't lose all that much (whatever the exact PlayMPE figures, there is value there). The coin is still in the air, and might be for some time..
Giving it some more thought:
- Yes, PlayMPE revenue was stagnating to declining until a year ago, but it's more profitable now
- The share price before Clipstream speculation set in with HTFBS newsletters used to be really considerably higher (2x-3x), so that stagnation might be priced in and last year PlayMPE revenues started to increase a bit again.
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