CytoSorbents Corporation (CTSO)

[DebitsAndCredits]

Some numbers and charts for your consideration:

All numbers are product sales only. Grant revenue is excluded.



The chart above makes a good point. For the past 3 years, Q1 revenue is in-line with prior year Q4 revenue. I don't see a down-trend emerging. I will be looking for the same pattern of revenue growth to occur as in prior years, with Q3 and Q4 being the strongest quarters for the company.

When you look at which quarters contribute the most as a percentage of full-year revenue you can see that Q1 contributes around 19% of the total revenue for the year. Q3 and Q4 contribute the most. See the table below.



Comparing each successive quarter to the prior quarter is a bit of a trap because it does not take into account the seasonality of orders that Cytosorbents is currently experiencing. Like it or not, this is still a small company and the pool of customers is small enough that the seasonality of their ordering shows up in the results. We know that Germany is their primary market. And we know that German hospitals prepare their budgets during January through March. This creates a slower Q1 and stronger Q3 and Q4.

I show the table below to show that there really is no pattern emerging when we compare the current quarter to the one immediately prior to it.



Lastly, here are the facts about the company as I see them.

(1) German hospitals create budget during Jan - Mar 2017, the 2017 fiscal year is just beginning in Germany.

(2) Per unit profit margins continue to remain above 60% and have improved in the past two quarters

(3) Lots of interest from the medical community about this device. Do they understand it? Can they use it in their practice?

(4) Be greedy when others are fearful ...."But,but,...I thought it would be raining gold and leprechauns would be hoarding our lucky beads by now!" Some think wild success is right around the corner. With a biotech startup, you and I need to pay attention and take profits here and there. There will be volatility in the share price. Will you profit from it?

(5) Fresenius and Terumo have always planned on starting sales in Q3 and Q4 2017, I doubt we see their contribution until this summer or fall.

(6) Germany is the "one-trick pony" for Cytosorbents right now.

(7) Need to hear about approval process in Canada.

(8) Need to hear more about FDA approval process.

(9) When is the next capital raise? I think there will be one in order to fund the FDA trial. There are other options, but I place my bet on a capital raise.


GLTA,

-D&C


As always, this is not investment advice. Do you own due diligence. Yes, you can lose all of your money.