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Sunday, May 07, 2017 11:06:06 AM
:::: SPY DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap ::::
By Carl Swenlin | May 7, 2017
...Bad Week for Gold and Crude
Last week I wrote regarding SPY: "Consolidation may continue for a bit, and it is possible that price will move lower toward the point of the breakout and fill Tuesday's gap; however, the charts in all three time frames are bullish, and I favor a breakout to new all-time highs next week." Had I remembered that there was to be a Fed announcement on Wednesday, I would have anticipated that the market would probably churn until after that. Nevertheless, the market did break out ever so slightly before the close on Friday, but obviously, more work needs to be done before the move can be considered decisive.
A significant problem for the market is that IBM has tanked, thanks in large part to Warren Buffet having dumped the stock. IBM is heavily weighted in the Dow and S&P 500 (as well as others), so there is a major drag on those indexes, particularly since mid-April.
The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds.
STOCKS
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 11/15/2016
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 4/1/2016
SPY is poised positively in almost every regard. It has moved to new, all-time highs, and the daily PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) is rising above the signal line. OBV is sluggish, but that could be remedied with a pick up in volume associated with a continuation of the breakout.
The weekly PMO has bottomed and it is about to move above the signal line.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The STO-B and STO-V have bottomed and are now in sync with the PMO. The indicators were sufficiently oversold for a bull market, and they have plenty of room to move higher before they become overbought.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The ITBM and ITVM had topped midweek, but they are rising again along with the PMO. As with the short-term indicators above, these indicators have plenty of room to move higher.
Conclusion: While Friday's breakout to new, all-time highs was pretty slim, I don't think it is a fakeout. Rather I think it is the beginning of another up leg to the bull market. IBM has managed to get itself into its own personal bear market, and that has been dragging down the major market indexes. However, other stocks have been correcting or consolidating as well, and when they resume their rally, I think they will bury the negative effects of IBM. Bottom Line: I remain bullish on stocks. . .
http://stockcharts.com/articles/decisionpoint/2017/05/decisionpoint-weekly-wrap----bad-week-for-gold-and-crude.html
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
By Carl Swenlin | May 7, 2017
...Bad Week for Gold and Crude
Last week I wrote regarding SPY: "Consolidation may continue for a bit, and it is possible that price will move lower toward the point of the breakout and fill Tuesday's gap; however, the charts in all three time frames are bullish, and I favor a breakout to new all-time highs next week." Had I remembered that there was to be a Fed announcement on Wednesday, I would have anticipated that the market would probably churn until after that. Nevertheless, the market did break out ever so slightly before the close on Friday, but obviously, more work needs to be done before the move can be considered decisive.
A significant problem for the market is that IBM has tanked, thanks in large part to Warren Buffet having dumped the stock. IBM is heavily weighted in the Dow and S&P 500 (as well as others), so there is a major drag on those indexes, particularly since mid-April.
The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds.
STOCKS
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 11/15/2016
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 4/1/2016
SPY is poised positively in almost every regard. It has moved to new, all-time highs, and the daily PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) is rising above the signal line. OBV is sluggish, but that could be remedied with a pick up in volume associated with a continuation of the breakout.
The weekly PMO has bottomed and it is about to move above the signal line.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The STO-B and STO-V have bottomed and are now in sync with the PMO. The indicators were sufficiently oversold for a bull market, and they have plenty of room to move higher before they become overbought.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The ITBM and ITVM had topped midweek, but they are rising again along with the PMO. As with the short-term indicators above, these indicators have plenty of room to move higher.
Conclusion: While Friday's breakout to new, all-time highs was pretty slim, I don't think it is a fakeout. Rather I think it is the beginning of another up leg to the bull market. IBM has managed to get itself into its own personal bear market, and that has been dragging down the major market indexes. However, other stocks have been correcting or consolidating as well, and when they resume their rally, I think they will bury the negative effects of IBM. Bottom Line: I remain bullish on stocks. . .
http://stockcharts.com/articles/decisionpoint/2017/05/decisionpoint-weekly-wrap----bad-week-for-gold-and-crude.html
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
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