FOREX TRADERS

[craddock]

[17:57 AUD/USD: No Rate Rise Expected from RBA Tonight] San Francisco, September 5. The AUD/USD continues to hold onto afternoon gains but no rate rise is tipped by the RBA tonight and since the central bank does not issue a statement when it does not change rates, traders will be forced to continue to watch data to gauge the likely outlook for Australian rates. The latest data shows a mixed economy with the ACCI-Westpac survey released last night of industrial trends showing that the manufacturing sector remains robust. But data from the automotive industry shows that car and truck sales dipped 5.2% in August. In addition, the AIG-Commonwealth Bank PSI showed that the services sector in Australia stagnated, dropping to 50.2 in August. A fall under 50.0 will reflect a contraction. The Australian also warns today of a slide to negative equity in housing with mortgages that are higher than the value of housing.

The Australian press today also notes that expectations favor a rate hike before the year is out with Nov 8th tipped as the likely date. GDP data for Q2 is due later tonight with median expectations for a 0.7% rise taking annual growth to 2.6% though note that this is down from median expectations of a 0.9% rise last week. The data may help solidify the rate outlook for Australia. Option defense of 0.7725 continues to stall gains with AUD at 0.7708/13 currently.
[e-mail]