The Athlon64 release is close enough to smell (pleasantly).
AMD has announced a new pricing policy with Opteron, and I would expect that the A64s will follow a similar strategy. Alot of rumors lately suggest that the launch will go well (speeds, quantity, OEM partnerships). Intel has delayed its competing chips, giving AMD a nice window (problems on .09 it seems, just as a few of us predicted). SOI is starting to show benefits.
If we can just push Intel's .09 chips to Q01, then AMD will own Christmas. Is there anything you can do hurt yields over there, EPhud? ;)
AMD will need to overclock its advertising and marketing--historically weak areas, though better since Ruiz took over. I'm hoping they get this right, because they have a chance to really create demand here. The usual MO is sell to an already existing market (i.e. Intel's), so advertising was not as as important. Now they have a unique product; If they want premiums (or parity at least), they need to hype it. Centrino shows you that how much people are willing to pay for good marketing.
All this should lead to profits. And I don't think we need to wait that long for this stock to get up off the book-value Jerry-bought-here bond-conversion level it's been sleeping on for months now. The expectation of profits that comes from a successful A64 launch with a couple OEMS on board will be enough--IMO--to double this puppy. The AMD64 strategy changes the business model to make it less dependent on and vulnerable to Intel, all of which should lead to a little bit more respect on Wall Street once it becomes clear that they're going to pull it off.
This is pretty much the same as my original rationale for buying late in 2002, and if anything, it seems more plausible now than then (back in the days of 800mhz Opteron samples).
I think there will be a nice window to sell before AMD has a chance to really screw up .09 :)
