Saturday, April 29, 2017 2:55:51 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 04/27 2017 EOD
Most likely near-term behavior seems to be weakness. Looking at a daily chart it looks like the periodic twice-a-week PRs are having less and less beneficial effect, both in terms of magnitude and duration. Since closing on/above the the long-term descending resistance for the last time on 4/18 there has been no close at or above that line and only two intra-day penetrations. This is a strong resistance. Bearing in mind yesterday's discussion of our progress along the consolidation triangle's width, we should be looking for an attempt to break out of the triangle soon. With the recent spate of PRs it as likely to be an up as down break. But the recent technical action completely contradicts that thought.
Yes, like numbers, charts can lie. But since I go beyond charts, even consulting closely with my TFH, and factor in items others seem to not consider, I have to go with the charts here. Near-term weakness should be the expected behavior right now.
Today trading penetrated the medium-term descending resistance (falling red line ~$0.77 today) on the open and maintained about $0.77xx/$0.78 as the subsequent highs through ~10:26. Range then fell strongly below the line to $0.7612 by 10:37 and never exceeded $0.77 the rest of the day. Excluding that first hour would make the day essentially one long, flat, extremely low/no-volume trading day.
Since today wasn't a Friday, there's really only one reason for that - lack of interest. Both manipulation and lack of interest are demonstrated by the open at the day's high, up 4% from the prior open and 0.84% from the prior close on no new catalyst, and a close at the day's low, down 1.75% from the prior close and -2.56% from today's open.
Support for that assessment exists in the intra-day breakdown below.
There was one pre-market trade: a sell of 41 shares for $0.76 (matching last night's suspicious trade?).
B/a just before open was 2.3K:7K $0.76/9.
09:30-10:34 opened the day with a 6,966 buy for $0.78 & $0.78 x 1.9K, x 171 & 41 more in odd-lots for $0.78 (matching pre-market volume on that $0.76 trade). B/a just after open was 13K:3.2K $0.76/8. Then came 9:32's b/a 200:5.8K $0.7601/$0.78, 9:36's 5K $0.7782, 9:42's b/a 450:1.3K $0.7605/$0.7799, 9:49's 2.1K $0.7647/$0.77/$0.7622/$0.77 (1K), 9:51's 100 $0.7617, 9:52's 700 $0.7787, 9:53's 1K $7613, 9:54's b/a 550:1.3K $0.7605/$0.7799, 9:55's 1.3K $0.7765/99 (1K)/$0.7605, 10:00's 100 $0.7799, 10:04's 100 $0.7799, 10:06's b/a 2.3K:1.4K $0.7612/$0.7799, 10:12's b/a 1.5K:1.4K $0.7709/99 (bids falling), 10:18's 274 $0.7787/04, 10:22's 7.8K $0.7709/18 (5.3K)/09/8/2, 10:23's 100 $0.7702, 10:24's 100 $0.7703, 10:24's b/a 400:1.7K $0.7702/99, 10:25's 500 $0.7799 (400)/02, 10:26's 395 $0.7798 (295)/02, 10:27's b/a 200:1.7K $0.7702/99, 10:29's 100 $0.7702, 10:33's 100 $0.7768. The period ended on 10:34's 10:34's 2.5K $0.7791 (2K)/07/02/00.
10:35-11:34, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7601/50, with falling highs, after 10:37's 13.3K $0.7700 (10K blk)/$0.7697/13/26/13/12. B/a at 10:37 was 200:2.2K $0.7612/93 (offers falling), 10:44 700:200 $0.7601/10, 10:48 600:300 $0.7601/10, 11:03 100:100 $0.7601/9, 11:21 300:200 $0.7601/10, 11:32 200:500 $0.7601/10. The period ended on 11:34's 290 $0.7610/06.
11:35-14:21, after twenty-two no-trades minutes, which had b/a at 11:47 of 300:100 $0.7601/10, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7610/4, with slowly rising range through 13:01, on 11:57's 300 $0.7606/10/09. B/a at 12:01 was 1.6K:200 $0.7610/50, 12:17 1.21K:100 $0.7615/19, 12:31 1.3K:200 $0.7615/19. Volume and price were interrupted by 12:36's 1.7K $0.7617/19/50 (1.2K)/18. B/a at 12:37 was 1.3K:100 $0.7615/19, 12:47 1.3K:100 $0.7615/19, 13:02 700:200 $0.7615/26, 13:17 700:200 $0.7615/26. Weakening began to appear at 13:23 as sporadic lower lows began appearing, eventually followed by the highs. B/a at 13:32 was 653:200 $0.7610/26, 13:47 653:300 $0.7610/26, 14:02 644:200 $0.7610/26, 14:17 644:300 $0.7611/11. The period ended on 14:21's 238 $0.761.
14:22-15:26, during the initial twelve no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:32 of 644:100 $0.7610/1. Trade began low/medium-volume $0.7600/98 on 14:34's 13K $0.7611 (2K)/10 (1.8K)/11/10 (4.4K)/11/94/00 (2.8K) and 14:35's 900 $0.7600/94 (100). B/a at 14:47 was 200:300 $0.7600/98. Volume became extremely low/no-volume, and highs fell to $0.7640, after 14:53's 2K $0.7607 (1.5K)/00/43 (100). B/a at 14:54 was 11.3K:2K $0.7600/83, 15:18 11.1K:1.9K $0.7600/81. The period ended on 15:26's 232 $0.7601.
15:27-16:00, during the initial eleven no-trades minutes had b/a 15:32 of 11.4K:1.8K $0.7600/79. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7600/86 on 15:48's 300 $0.7678/00. B/a at 15:48 was 11.1K:800 $0.7600/40. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.5K $0.7600/85 (500)/86 (500)/00 and 16:00's 648 sell for $0.7600.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 5 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 31,666, 35.17% of day's volume, with a $0.7725 VWAP. For the volume I guess the count is reasonable. The percentage is a bit high but I guess that's to be expected as even one "larger larger trade" has an out-sized effect within the day's aggregate volume. The VWAP is well above the day's $0.7676. Considering that and the volume my guess would be short-term traders or retail investors took most of these trades. Could be MMs/shorts covering I guess but normally MMs would be below the day's VWAP, leaving only shorters locking in profits as the alternative to retail I think.
If it weren't for the very high early opening and usual manipulation to push price up, we would see a very narrow VWAP spread on the day. The intra-day behavior suggests that should have been the case too. This stuff essentially is really just suggesting consolidation.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Unfortunately, this all fits with yesterday's { It's also too bad the the open and low gained no ground at all. For that reason I don't think I could reasonably conclude that these movements are suggesting some near-term bullish price action. }
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { ... With today being up though, thanks to a close above the open, I suspect we'll see an attempt to move up to challenge the falling resistance. I don't expect we'll get through it easily though. That line has demonstrated good resistance on many touches by the price ranges with the only successful penetration occurring on 4/10's PR and by 4/19 we were moving solidly back below it. }
Today trading penetrated the medium-term descending resistance (falling red line ~$0.77 today) on the open and maintained about $0.77xx/$0.78 as the subsequent highs through ~10:26. Range then fell strongly below the line to $0.7612 by 10:37 and never exceeded $0.77 the rest of the day.
Our range was completely below the experimental 13-period Bollinger band mid-point of $0.7834, which is falling as both limits decline. We are nowhere near "pushing" either limit, so I don't see that suggesting we're going to drop. But the fact of both limits and the mid-point falling combined with resistance holding on falling volume does suggest near-term weakening.
The fast EMA continues below the slow EMA but stopped rising to narrow it and declined, as did the slow EMA. Now the gap is $0.0089 (was $0.0102) below it. Regardless of the gap narrowing, due to the slow EMA falling faster than the fast EMA, I think the fast below the slow with both falling is suggesting near-term more weakening.
On my one-year chart, this is beginning to look familiar: { Our high was again right at the descending 10-day SMA, and even got slightly above, thanks again only to the first few minutes (well, today actually an hour) of trading, and the rest of the day was again completely below everything but the 50-day SMA at $0.7660. At least we didn't close below again. Our high was still below the 20-day SMA. } Today, thanks to the first hour or so, the high got above the 10-day SMA of $0.7707 and the 20-day SMA of $0.779. After that first hour range quickly retreated below the 10 and 20-day SMAs and never touched either for the rest of the day.
Price briefly penetrated the long-term descending resistance and then retreated and closed well below it. Since closing on/above the the long-term descending resistance for the last time on 4/18 there has been no close at or above that line and only two intra-day penetrations. This is a strong resistance.
The 50-day SMA, which had resumed rising, 9/100ths of a cent yesterday, failed to sustain that and fell 2/100ths today. The 10-day SMA continued to decline and was joined by the 20-day SMA which fell 1/10th of a penny from $0.78 to $0.779.
If we hold here the 10-day will decline 4 days (was 4), do one flat day and decline 3 (was rise 4). The 20-day would decline 3 days (was 2), go flat 1 day was (vacillate 6 days) and then decline 12 days (was 7). The 50-day will decline 6 days (was rise 1), rise 3 days (was decline 3), and start waves up and down again.
The 200-day SMA continues to decline.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related. Improvement was seen in RSI, momentum, Williams %R and full stochastic. RSI is right at neutral and everything else is below neutral. Williams %R got barely out of oversold, full stochastic remained oversold and MFI is barely above oversold.
Today had weakening in every oscillator I watch, but for MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic. Those two exceptions improved. Every one is below neutral. Williams %R continues in oversold condition as full stochastic exited oversold. MFI is close to it.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7302 and $0.8338 ($0.7311 and $0.8336 yesterday), switched, for the third time in as many days, from converging to diverging this time, with a falling mid-point as the lower limit declined faster than the upper limit rose.
All in, both the conventional and my unconventional stuff are lacking any near-term positive indications. The best scenario is my intra-day breakdown buy percentages ended in "no man's land", allowing us to hope for consolidation as a near-term behavior. That is countered by the behavior at the open vs. the rest of the day (manipulated open high and then tank) and the negative indications from the conventional TA charts and oscillators.
With the preponderance of indications being negative I even have to give up yesterday's "best case scenario" of consolidation (with a grudging "mild negative bias" considered but not endorsed) and now have to lean heavily over to the bearish side - near-term weakening seems most likely ATM.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, normalcy again, but neither have desirable readings. The short percentage is right at the high end of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage about at the top of "no man's land", offering no suggestion of a near-term direction. Having said that, if it weren't for the early high price and buying strength, the buy percentage, along with VWAP on the day, would be much worse.
Since I believe the price was manipulated early on, I feel comfortable discounting the effect of the early strength and estimating the buy percentage, and VWAP, would be much lower than the actual readings. That would also make the day essentially one long, flat, extremely low/no-volume trading day. Since today wasn't a Friday, there's really only one reason for that - lack of interest.
The spread was affected by the early opening strength. If we use $0.77 (the high subsequent to the opening hour), the spread would be 1.32% rather than the 2.63% seen. The 2.63% itself is small enough to suggest consolidation, especially with trade volume down ~61%, and the lower figure is right in the range we would see in consolidation.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, held steady for the second day at 12 negatives and 12 positives. Change since 03/23 is $0.0139, 1.85%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1088%, 0.0842%, -0.2035%, -0.1687%, -0.0279%, 0.1106%, 0.3283%, 0.2923%, 0.5141%, and 0.4794%.
All in, the short percentage being at the high end of my range with a buy percentage (and VWAP) that would have been much worse if not for the manipulated open leaves me struggling to find something positive to suggest. Those items even weigh heavily enough to make me discount the spread, both as presented and adjusted.
Factoring in that we are already in a sustained leg down, interrupted by just a couple hiccups, I think the most likely scenario is near-term near-term weakness. If I've totally misread the tea leaves, it could be consolidation, at best, and I think it's highly unlikely.
Bill
Most likely near-term behavior seems to be weakness. Looking at a daily chart it looks like the periodic twice-a-week PRs are having less and less beneficial effect, both in terms of magnitude and duration. Since closing on/above the the long-term descending resistance for the last time on 4/18 there has been no close at or above that line and only two intra-day penetrations. This is a strong resistance. Bearing in mind yesterday's discussion of our progress along the consolidation triangle's width, we should be looking for an attempt to break out of the triangle soon. With the recent spate of PRs it as likely to be an up as down break. But the recent technical action completely contradicts that thought.
Yes, like numbers, charts can lie. But since I go beyond charts, even consulting closely with my TFH, and factor in items others seem to not consider, I have to go with the charts here. Near-term weakness should be the expected behavior right now.
Today trading penetrated the medium-term descending resistance (falling red line ~$0.77 today) on the open and maintained about $0.77xx/$0.78 as the subsequent highs through ~10:26. Range then fell strongly below the line to $0.7612 by 10:37 and never exceeded $0.77 the rest of the day. Excluding that first hour would make the day essentially one long, flat, extremely low/no-volume trading day.
Since today wasn't a Friday, there's really only one reason for that - lack of interest. Both manipulation and lack of interest are demonstrated by the open at the day's high, up 4% from the prior open and 0.84% from the prior close on no new catalyst, and a close at the day's low, down 1.75% from the prior close and -2.56% from today's open.
Support for that assessment exists in the intra-day breakdown below.
There was one pre-market trade: a sell of 41 shares for $0.76 (matching last night's suspicious trade?).
B/a just before open was 2.3K:7K $0.76/9.
09:30-10:34 opened the day with a 6,966 buy for $0.78 & $0.78 x 1.9K, x 171 & 41 more in odd-lots for $0.78 (matching pre-market volume on that $0.76 trade). B/a just after open was 13K:3.2K $0.76/8. Then came 9:32's b/a 200:5.8K $0.7601/$0.78, 9:36's 5K $0.7782, 9:42's b/a 450:1.3K $0.7605/$0.7799, 9:49's 2.1K $0.7647/$0.77/$0.7622/$0.77 (1K), 9:51's 100 $0.7617, 9:52's 700 $0.7787, 9:53's 1K $7613, 9:54's b/a 550:1.3K $0.7605/$0.7799, 9:55's 1.3K $0.7765/99 (1K)/$0.7605, 10:00's 100 $0.7799, 10:04's 100 $0.7799, 10:06's b/a 2.3K:1.4K $0.7612/$0.7799, 10:12's b/a 1.5K:1.4K $0.7709/99 (bids falling), 10:18's 274 $0.7787/04, 10:22's 7.8K $0.7709/18 (5.3K)/09/8/2, 10:23's 100 $0.7702, 10:24's 100 $0.7703, 10:24's b/a 400:1.7K $0.7702/99, 10:25's 500 $0.7799 (400)/02, 10:26's 395 $0.7798 (295)/02, 10:27's b/a 200:1.7K $0.7702/99, 10:29's 100 $0.7702, 10:33's 100 $0.7768. The period ended on 10:34's 10:34's 2.5K $0.7791 (2K)/07/02/00.
10:35-11:34, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7601/50, with falling highs, after 10:37's 13.3K $0.7700 (10K blk)/$0.7697/13/26/13/12. B/a at 10:37 was 200:2.2K $0.7612/93 (offers falling), 10:44 700:200 $0.7601/10, 10:48 600:300 $0.7601/10, 11:03 100:100 $0.7601/9, 11:21 300:200 $0.7601/10, 11:32 200:500 $0.7601/10. The period ended on 11:34's 290 $0.7610/06.
11:35-14:21, after twenty-two no-trades minutes, which had b/a at 11:47 of 300:100 $0.7601/10, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7610/4, with slowly rising range through 13:01, on 11:57's 300 $0.7606/10/09. B/a at 12:01 was 1.6K:200 $0.7610/50, 12:17 1.21K:100 $0.7615/19, 12:31 1.3K:200 $0.7615/19. Volume and price were interrupted by 12:36's 1.7K $0.7617/19/50 (1.2K)/18. B/a at 12:37 was 1.3K:100 $0.7615/19, 12:47 1.3K:100 $0.7615/19, 13:02 700:200 $0.7615/26, 13:17 700:200 $0.7615/26. Weakening began to appear at 13:23 as sporadic lower lows began appearing, eventually followed by the highs. B/a at 13:32 was 653:200 $0.7610/26, 13:47 653:300 $0.7610/26, 14:02 644:200 $0.7610/26, 14:17 644:300 $0.7611/11. The period ended on 14:21's 238 $0.761.
14:22-15:26, during the initial twelve no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:32 of 644:100 $0.7610/1. Trade began low/medium-volume $0.7600/98 on 14:34's 13K $0.7611 (2K)/10 (1.8K)/11/10 (4.4K)/11/94/00 (2.8K) and 14:35's 900 $0.7600/94 (100). B/a at 14:47 was 200:300 $0.7600/98. Volume became extremely low/no-volume, and highs fell to $0.7640, after 14:53's 2K $0.7607 (1.5K)/00/43 (100). B/a at 14:54 was 11.3K:2K $0.7600/83, 15:18 11.1K:1.9K $0.7600/81. The period ended on 15:26's 232 $0.7601.
15:27-16:00, during the initial eleven no-trades minutes had b/a 15:32 of 11.4K:1.8K $0.7600/79. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7600/86 on 15:48's 300 $0.7678/00. B/a at 15:48 was 11.1K:800 $0.7600/40. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.5K $0.7600/85 (500)/86 (500)/00 and 16:00's 648 sell for $0.7600.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 5 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 31,666, 35.17% of day's volume, with a $0.7725 VWAP. For the volume I guess the count is reasonable. The percentage is a bit high but I guess that's to be expected as even one "larger larger trade" has an out-sized effect within the day's aggregate volume. The VWAP is well above the day's $0.7676. Considering that and the volume my guess would be short-term traders or retail investors took most of these trades. Could be MMs/shorts covering I guess but normally MMs would be below the day's VWAP, leaving only shorters locking in profits as the alternative to retail I think.
Buy percentage and VWAP are reasonably well coordinated and with the buy percentages being well behaved (only relatively though) I think the warrant holders are not in the market right now. The ending buy percentage is back in what is a normal range for this symbol, "no man's land", suggesting neither weakness nor strength near-term.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:34 31306 $0.7605 $0.7800 $24,277.42 $0.7755 34.77% 60.76% Incl 09:30 $0.7800 6,966 09:36 $0.7781 5,000
10:22 $0.7718 5,300
11:34 21540 $0.7601 $0.7700 $16,482.83 $0.7652 23.92% 47.86% Incl 10:37 $0.7700 10,000
14:21 12968 $0.7606 $0.7650 $9,882.42 $0.7621 14.40% 50.88%
15:26 18832 $0.7600 $0.7698 $14,342.19 $0.7616 20.92% 46.42% Incl 14:34 $0.7610 4,400
16:00 4148 $0.7600 $0.7686 $3,169.42 $0.7641 4.61% 46.61%
If it weren't for the very high early opening and usual manipulation to push price up, we would see a very narrow VWAP spread on the day. The intra-day behavior suggests that should have been the case too. This stuff essentially is really just suggesting consolidation.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Looks really good doesn't it? Don't be hoodwinked - the close was at the day's low and the volume tells us the trading volume was ripe for the usual manipulation. I also get suspicious when the open is up like that with no apparent catalyst. True, yesterday we had positive substantial sale PR but our recent history of these Monday/Wednesday PRs is that they don't generally (yet?) produce any follow-on support. Considering the +4% open with the -1.75% close, this still appears to be the case.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 4.00% 2.43% 0.65% -1.75% -60.87%
Prior 0.00% 0.00% 0.68% 3.83% 48.92%
Unfortunately, this all fits with yesterday's { It's also too bad the the open and low gained no ground at all. For that reason I don't think I could reasonably conclude that these movements are suggesting some near-term bullish price action. }
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { ... With today being up though, thanks to a close above the open, I suspect we'll see an attempt to move up to challenge the falling resistance. I don't expect we'll get through it easily though. That line has demonstrated good resistance on many touches by the price ranges with the only successful penetration occurring on 4/10's PR and by 4/19 we were moving solidly back below it. }
Today trading penetrated the medium-term descending resistance (falling red line ~$0.77 today) on the open and maintained about $0.77xx/$0.78 as the subsequent highs through ~10:26. Range then fell strongly below the line to $0.7612 by 10:37 and never exceeded $0.77 the rest of the day.
Our range was completely below the experimental 13-period Bollinger band mid-point of $0.7834, which is falling as both limits decline. We are nowhere near "pushing" either limit, so I don't see that suggesting we're going to drop. But the fact of both limits and the mid-point falling combined with resistance holding on falling volume does suggest near-term weakening.
The fast EMA continues below the slow EMA but stopped rising to narrow it and declined, as did the slow EMA. Now the gap is $0.0089 (was $0.0102) below it. Regardless of the gap narrowing, due to the slow EMA falling faster than the fast EMA, I think the fast below the slow with both falling is suggesting near-term more weakening.
On my one-year chart, this is beginning to look familiar: { Our high was again right at the descending 10-day SMA, and even got slightly above, thanks again only to the first few minutes (well, today actually an hour) of trading, and the rest of the day was again completely below everything but the 50-day SMA at $0.7660. At least we didn't close below again. Our high was still below the 20-day SMA. } Today, thanks to the first hour or so, the high got above the 10-day SMA of $0.7707 and the 20-day SMA of $0.779. After that first hour range quickly retreated below the 10 and 20-day SMAs and never touched either for the rest of the day.
Price briefly penetrated the long-term descending resistance and then retreated and closed well below it. Since closing on/above the the long-term descending resistance for the last time on 4/18 there has been no close at or above that line and only two intra-day penetrations. This is a strong resistance.
The 50-day SMA, which had resumed rising, 9/100ths of a cent yesterday, failed to sustain that and fell 2/100ths today. The 10-day SMA continued to decline and was joined by the 20-day SMA which fell 1/10th of a penny from $0.78 to $0.779.
If we hold here the 10-day will decline 4 days (was 4), do one flat day and decline 3 (was rise 4). The 20-day would decline 3 days (was 2), go flat 1 day was (vacillate 6 days) and then decline 12 days (was 7). The 50-day will decline 6 days (was rise 1), rise 3 days (was decline 3), and start waves up and down again.
The 200-day SMA continues to decline.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related. Improvement was seen in RSI, momentum, Williams %R and full stochastic. RSI is right at neutral and everything else is below neutral. Williams %R got barely out of oversold, full stochastic remained oversold and MFI is barely above oversold.
Today had weakening in every oscillator I watch, but for MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic. Those two exceptions improved. Every one is below neutral. Williams %R continues in oversold condition as full stochastic exited oversold. MFI is close to it.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7302 and $0.8338 ($0.7311 and $0.8336 yesterday), switched, for the third time in as many days, from converging to diverging this time, with a falling mid-point as the lower limit declined faster than the upper limit rose.
All in, both the conventional and my unconventional stuff are lacking any near-term positive indications. The best scenario is my intra-day breakdown buy percentages ended in "no man's land", allowing us to hope for consolidation as a near-term behavior. That is countered by the behavior at the open vs. the rest of the day (manipulated open high and then tank) and the negative indications from the conventional TA charts and oscillators.
With the preponderance of indications being negative I even have to give up yesterday's "best case scenario" of consolidation (with a grudging "mild negative bias" considered but not endorsed) and now have to lean heavily over to the bearish side - near-term weakening seems most likely ATM.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, normalcy again, but neither have desirable readings. The short percentage is right at the high end of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage about at the top of "no man's land", offering no suggestion of a near-term direction. Having said that, if it weren't for the early high price and buying strength, the buy percentage, along with VWAP on the day, would be much worse.
Since I believe the price was manipulated early on, I feel comfortable discounting the effect of the early strength and estimating the buy percentage, and VWAP, would be much lower than the actual readings. That would also make the day essentially one long, flat, extremely low/no-volume trading day. Since today wasn't a Friday, there's really only one reason for that - lack of interest.
The spread was affected by the early opening strength. If we use $0.77 (the high subsequent to the opening hour), the spread would be 1.32% rather than the 2.63% seen. The 2.63% itself is small enough to suggest consolidation, especially with trade volume down ~61%, and the lower figure is right in the range we would see in consolidation.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, held steady for the second day at 12 negatives and 12 positives. Change since 03/23 is $0.0139, 1.85%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1088%, 0.0842%, -0.2035%, -0.1687%, -0.0279%, 0.1106%, 0.3283%, 0.2923%, 0.5141%, and 0.4794%.
All in, the short percentage being at the high end of my range with a buy percentage (and VWAP) that would have been much worse if not for the manipulated open leaves me struggling to find something positive to suggest. Those items even weigh heavily enough to make me discount the spread, both as presented and adjusted.
Factoring in that we are already in a sustained leg down, interrupted by just a couple hiccups, I think the most likely scenario is near-term near-term weakness. If I've totally misread the tea leaves, it could be consolidation, at best, and I think it's highly unlikely.
Bill
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