Leading Brands, Inc. (LBIX)

[NewJerichoMan]

20-F is usually filed in mid- to late-May. Soon.



I rassled up some "troubled" comps for LBIX. As can be seen, LBIX ranks the lowest of the bunch based on the TTM ratio.

-REED is a disaster and over-valued.
-LWAY is managed like LBIX but communicates with customers and shareholders. Maybe too much. Family matriarch (and CEO) told Trump supporters to take a hike. Stock immediately commenced nosedive. It's not really growing but is eeking a small profit every year.
-JSDA is professionally managed, hasn't shown growth until 2016, but may be readying for a mini-breakout after multi-year nosedive.

LBIX should be valued higher than REED and probably on-par with LWAY and JSDA.



Throw a few more stats out there.




I estimate full year net revenues are gonna come in between $7.7M and $8.1M USD. Prior year was ~$8.1M. Happy Water only has to find $425K USD (in Q4) to officially signal the bottom of the revenue decline (and match the prior year's net revenues). Not a huge ask.

After the real estate sale, they should have de minimus debt (zero) and about $3M in cash left over, as well as some existing working capital (~$200K USD). The net margins are improving. They should be net cash flow neutral: turning small profits in their Q1s and Q2s and losing in Q3s and Q4s.

So what is LBIX worth given their complete indifference to their stockholders (excepting buying shares, which hasn’t helped much so far)?
My guess 1x to 1.5x net revenues. There will never be anything exciting about owning shares in Happy Water; but, on a per share basis, that's basically $2.85 to $4.25 per share. Decent upside.

One wild card is our monthly bull raids. Perhaps the company has been buying shares with their real estate monies? They have rules on this sort of stuff (less than 25% of daily volume, can't hit the ASK, etc.) so maybe when they go "monthly shopping spree", the market makers are front-running? The same action has been mellower lately because the company learned their lesson? If true, we might have a decent % less shares than 2.8M. Buying the shares hasn’t really worked in the past but maybe its finally reached an inflection point, gaining traction? Just musing out loud here.